Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 288
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM MDT FRI MAY 9 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO
NORTHWEST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL 900
PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF AKRON COLORADO TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
GOODLAND KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 287...
DISCUSSION...STORM INITIATION SHOULD ENSUE AS UPPER TROUGH SPREADS
EAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND DEEP-LAYER ASCENT STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW WAS TRANSPORTING
MID-UPR 40S DEWPOINTS NWWD BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. IN
COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SBCAPE
AROUND 500 J PER KG HAS ALREADY FORMED. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STOUT/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 288 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 091920Z - 100300Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60NNE AKO/AKRON CO/ - 45SSE GLD/GOODLAND KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /12SE SNY - 41SSE GLD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.
LAT...LON 40970144 38750008 38750268 40970412
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 288 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 288
VALID 100200Z - 100340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE GLD
TO 35 N GLD TO 45 NNW IML.
..JEWELL..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 288
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC023-063-109-153-181-193-100340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE GOVE LOGAN
RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS
$$
NEC029-057-087-135-100340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHASE DUNDY HITCHCOCK
PERKINS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 288
VALID 100045Z - 100140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE GLD
TO 10 E GLD TO 35 N GLD TO 35 NNW IML.
..CROSBIE..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 288
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC023-063-109-153-181-193-100140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE GOVE LOGAN
RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS
$$
NEC029-057-087-135-100140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHASE DUNDY HITCHCOCK
PERKINS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 288
VALID 092330Z - 100040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 844.
..CROSBIE..05/09/08
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 288
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC063-075-095-115-121-125-100040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KIT CARSON LOGAN PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA
$$
KSC023-063-109-153-181-193-199-100040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE GOVE LOGAN
RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS
WALLACE
$$
NEC029-057-087-135-100040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHASE DUNDY HITCHCOCK
PERKINS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 288
VALID 092235Z - 092340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..CROSBIE..05/09/08
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 288
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC063-075-095-115-121-125-092340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KIT CARSON LOGAN PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA
$$
KSC023-063-109-153-181-193-199-092340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE GOVE LOGAN
RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS
WALLACE
$$
NEC029-057-087-135-092340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHASE DUNDY HITCHCOCK
PERKINS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 288
VALID 092130Z - 092240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 843.
..CROSBIE..05/09/08
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 288
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC063-075-095-115-121-125-092240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KIT CARSON LOGAN PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA
$$
KSC023-063-109-153-181-193-199-092240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE GOVE LOGAN
RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS
WALLACE
$$
NEC029-057-087-135-092240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHASE DUNDY HITCHCOCK
PERKINS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 288
VALID 092035Z - 092140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/09/08
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 288
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC063-075-095-115-121-125-092140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KIT CARSON LOGAN PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA
$$
KSC023-063-109-153-181-193-199-092140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE GOVE LOGAN
RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS
WALLACE
$$
NEC029-057-087-135-092140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHASE DUNDY HITCHCOCK
PERKINS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.