Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF JUNCTION TEXAS TO 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AUSTIN
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 287...WW 288...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED AND
WEAKLY CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE...AND NEAR FRONT/DRYLINE
INTERSECTION...FROM THE ESCARPMENT EWD ACROSS SCNTRL TX NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAP VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION AND...COUPLED WITH 45-55KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...POSE A
THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A
SMALL MCS LATER THIS EVENING WITH WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL SPREADING
EWD/SEWD TOWARD SE TX COASTAL PLAIN.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28020.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 289 SEVERE TSTM TX 092030Z - 100300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
30WSW JCT/JUNCTION TX/ - 60SE AUS/AUSTIN TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /26SW JCT - 52SE AUS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28020.
LAT...LON 31210023 30549698 28819698 29470023
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 289 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 289
VALID 100155Z - 100240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW CLL
TO 15 S AUS TO 20 N HDO TO 20 SE JCT TO 60 WSW TPL.
..JEWELL..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 289
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-021-031-053-171-209-259-265-287-299-453-491-100240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BASTROP BLANCO
BURNET GILLESPIE HAYS
KENDALL KERR LEE
LLANO TRAVIS WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 289
VALID 100035Z - 100140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E AUS TO
20 N HDO TO 40 S JCT TO 20 SE JCT TO 65 SSE BWD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 846
..EVANS..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 289
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-021-031-053-171-209-259-265-287-299-453-491-100140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BASTROP BLANCO
BURNET GILLESPIE HAYS
KENDALL KERR LEE
LLANO TRAVIS WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 289
VALID 092340Z - 100040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..05/09/08
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 289
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-137-149-171-177-187-209-255-
259-265-267-285-287-299-319-325-385-453-463-491-493-100040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BASTROP BEXAR
BLANCO BURNET CALDWELL
COMAL DEWITT EDWARDS
FAYETTE GILLESPIE GONZALES
GUADALUPE HAYS KARNES
KENDALL KERR KIMBLE
LAVACA LEE LLANO
MASON MEDINA REAL
TRAVIS UVALDE WILLIAMSON
WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 289
VALID 092240Z - 092340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..05/09/08
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 289
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-137-149-171-177-187-209-255-
259-265-267-285-287-299-319-325-385-453-463-491-493-092340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BASTROP BEXAR
BLANCO BURNET CALDWELL
COMAL DEWITT EDWARDS
FAYETTE GILLESPIE GONZALES
GUADALUPE HAYS KARNES
KENDALL KERR KIMBLE
LAVACA LEE LLANO
MASON MEDINA REAL
TRAVIS UVALDE WILLIAMSON
WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 289
VALID 092145Z - 092240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..05/09/08
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 289
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-137-149-171-177-187-209-255-
259-265-267-285-287-299-319-325-385-453-463-491-493-092240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BASTROP BEXAR
BLANCO BURNET CALDWELL
COMAL DEWITT EDWARDS
FAYETTE GILLESPIE GONZALES
GUADALUPE HAYS KARNES
KENDALL KERR KIMBLE
LAVACA LEE LLANO
MASON MEDINA REAL
TRAVIS UVALDE WILLIAMSON
WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.