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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF BUFFALO SOUTH DAKOTA TO 85 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
BISMARCK NORTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WRN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF STRONG
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND JET STREAM. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NWRN ND INTO NERN WY AND EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY. STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A
SQUALL LINE BY THIS EVENING AND MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH
AS UPPER WINDS INCREASE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE THIS EVENING. EARLY
PART OF WATCH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 289 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 122040Z - 130400Z
AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35WSW 2WX/BUFFALO SD/ - 85ENE BIS/BISMARCK ND/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM N/S /95SE MLS - 71ENE BIS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
LAT...LON 46880419 48759908 45729908 43840419
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 289 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 289
VALID 130320Z - 130400Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW DVL
TO 55 WNW DVL.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 289 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
13/04Z.
..KERR..05/13/09
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 289
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC049-069-079-103-130400-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCHENRY PIERCE ROLETTE
WELLS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 289
VALID 130230Z - 130340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W JMS TO
30 E MOT.
..KERR..05/13/09
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 289
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC049-069-079-103-130340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCHENRY PIERCE ROLETTE
WELLS
$$
SDC129-130340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WALWORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 289
VALID 130145Z - 130240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW MBG
TO 40 W BIS TO 40 W N60.
..KERR..05/13/09
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 289
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC009-015-029-043-047-049-051-055-057-059-065-069-075-079-083-
085-101-103-130240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH EMMONS
KIDDER LOGAN MCHENRY
MCINTOSH MCLEAN MERCER
MORTON OLIVER PIERCE
RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN
SIOUX WARD WELLS
$$
SDC021-041-129-130240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL DEWEY WALWORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 289
VALID 130035Z - 130140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW 2WX
TO 10 N Y22 TO 45 N DIK.
..KERR..05/13/09
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 289
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC009-015-025-029-037-043-047-049-051-055-057-059-065-069-075-
079-083-085-101-103-130140-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH DUNN
EMMONS GRANT KIDDER
LOGAN MCHENRY MCINTOSH
MCLEAN MERCER MORTON
OLIVER PIERCE RENVILLE
ROLETTE SHERIDAN SIOUX
WARD WELLS
$$
SDC019-021-031-041-063-081-093-105-129-137-130140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE CAMPBELL CORSON
DEWEY HARDING LAWRENCE
MEADE PERKINS WALWORTH
ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 289
VALID 122340Z - 130040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/12/09
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 289
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-007-009-011-015-025-029-033-037-041-043-047-049-051-055-
057-059-065-069-075-079-083-085-087-089-101-103-130040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOTTINEAU
BOWMAN BURLEIGH DUNN
EMMONS GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT
HETTINGER KIDDER LOGAN
MCHENRY MCINTOSH MCLEAN
MERCER MORTON OLIVER
PIERCE RENVILLE ROLETTE
SHERIDAN SIOUX SLOPE
STARK WARD WELLS
$$
SDC019-021-031-041-063-081-093-105-129-137-130040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE CAMPBELL CORSON
DEWEY HARDING LAWRENCE
MEADE PERKINS WALWORTH
ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 289
VALID 122230Z - 122340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/12/09
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 289
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-007-009-011-015-025-029-033-037-041-043-047-049-051-055-
057-059-065-069-075-079-083-085-087-089-101-103-122340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOTTINEAU
BOWMAN BURLEIGH DUNN
EMMONS GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT
HETTINGER KIDDER LOGAN
MCHENRY MCINTOSH MCLEAN
MERCER MORTON OLIVER
PIERCE RENVILLE ROLETTE
SHERIDAN SIOUX SLOPE
STARK WARD WELLS
$$
SDC019-021-031-041-063-081-093-105-129-137-122340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE CAMPBELL CORSON
DEWEY HARDING LAWRENCE
MEADE PERKINS WALWORTH
ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 289
VALID 122130Z - 122240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/12/09
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 289
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-007-009-011-015-025-029-033-037-041-043-047-049-051-055-
057-059-065-069-075-079-083-085-087-089-101-103-122240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOTTINEAU
BOWMAN BURLEIGH DUNN
EMMONS GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT
HETTINGER KIDDER LOGAN
MCHENRY MCINTOSH MCLEAN
MERCER MORTON OLIVER
PIERCE RENVILLE ROLETTE
SHERIDAN SIOUX SLOPE
STARK WARD WELLS
$$
SDC019-021-031-041-063-081-093-105-137-122240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE CAMPBELL CORSON
DEWEY HARDING LAWRENCE
MEADE PERKINS ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.