Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 540 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANGELO
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 289...
DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IN THE DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT
ALONG AND W OF THE DRYLINE MAY SPREAD E FAR ENOUGH TO REACH SOMEWHAT
RICHER MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY NEAR THE CAPROCK THIS
EVENING. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTING NEWD
FROM SE NM COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS...AND CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO SMALL CLUSTERS
EARLY TONIGHT. THE EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED
BY STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AFTER SUNSET.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 290 SEVERE TSTM TX 122240Z - 130400Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60NNW CDS/CHILDRESS TX/ - 40SW SJT/SAN ANGELO TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM E/W /47E AMA - 37SW SJT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.
LAT...LON 35229988 30950022 30950173 35220148
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 290 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 290
VALID 130320Z - 130440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE MAF
TO 30 WNW SJT TO 40 NE SJT.
..JEWELL..05/13/09
ATTN...WFO...AMA...MAF...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 290
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC101-105-235-451-130440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COTTLE CROCKETT IRION
TOM GREEN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 290
VALID 130240Z - 130340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE MAF
TO 45 SSE BGS TO 55 ENE BGS TO 30 SSW CDS TO 40 WNW LTS.
..JEWELL..05/13/09
ATTN...WFO...AMA...MAF...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 290
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC075-081-101-105-151-235-269-353-383-431-433-451-130340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHILDRESS COKE COTTLE
CROCKETT FISHER IRION
KING NOLAN REAGAN
STERLING STONEWALL TOM GREEN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 290
VALID 130210Z - 130340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MAF
TO 20 S BGS TO 55 ENE BGS TO 50 SSW CDS TO 10 NW CDS TO 60 N CDS.
..JEWELL..05/13/09
ATTN...WFO...AMA...MAF...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 290
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC075-081-087-101-105-125-151-173-191-235-263-269-335-345-353-
383-415-431-433-451-130340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHILDRESS COKE COLLINGSWORTH
COTTLE CROCKETT DICKENS
FISHER GLASSCOCK HALL
IRION KENT KING
MITCHELL MOTLEY NOLAN
REAGAN SCURRY STERLING
STONEWALL TOM GREEN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 290
VALID 130025Z - 130140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..05/13/09
ATTN...WFO...AMA...MAF...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 290
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC011-033-045-075-081-087-101-105-107-125-129-151-153-169-173-
189-191-227-235-263-269-335-345-353-383-415-431-433-437-451-
130140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BORDEN BRISCOE
CHILDRESS COKE COLLINGSWORTH
COTTLE CROCKETT CROSBY
DICKENS DONLEY FISHER
FLOYD GARZA GLASSCOCK
HALE HALL HOWARD
IRION KENT KING
MITCHELL MOTLEY NOLAN
REAGAN SCURRY STERLING
STONEWALL SWISHER TOM GREEN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.