Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 291
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
710 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 710 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES EAST OF NORTH
PLATTE NEBRASKA TO 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 289...WW 290...
DISCUSSION...ONGOING SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS FROM CENTRAL SD INTO
CENTRAL NEB WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 45-60 KT WILL SUPPORT
A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS AS THE BELT OF
ASCENT SPREADS FROM W TO E ACROSS SD AND NRN NEB...DESPITE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 291 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 130010Z - 130600Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
10E LBF/NORTH PLATTE NE/ - 40NW ABR/ABERDEEN SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /10E LBF - 38NW ABR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 41110163 45840025 45849776 41119933
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 291 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 291
VALID 130430Z - 130540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW VTN
TO 35 N ONL.
..KERR..05/13/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...FSD...ABR...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 291
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-009-017-031-041-075-091-101-103-111-113-115-117-149-171-
130540-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN
CHERRY CUSTER GRANT
HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA
LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 291
VALID 130325Z - 130440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW VTN
TO 40 NW ABR TO 40 NE ABR TO 30 NNE ANW TO 35 N ONL.
..KERR..05/13/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...FSD...ABR...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 291
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-009-017-031-041-075-091-101-103-111-113-115-117-149-171-
130440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN
CHERRY CUSTER GRANT
HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA
LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS
$$
SDC013-017-045-049-059-069-085-115-121-123-130440-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN BUFFALO EDMUNDS
FAULK HAND HYDE
LYMAN SPINK TODD
TRIPP
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 291
VALID 130225Z - 130340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/13/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...FSD...ABR...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 291
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-009-017-031-041-075-091-101-103-111-113-115-117-149-171-
130340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN
CHERRY CUSTER GRANT
HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA
LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS
$$
SDC003-005-013-015-017-023-045-049-053-059-065-069-073-075-085-
089-095-107-115-117-119-121-123-130340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BROWN
BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX
EDMUNDS FAULK GREGORY
HAND HUGHES HYDE
JERAULD JONES LYMAN
MCPHERSON MELLETTE POTTER
SPINK STANLEY SULLY
TODD TRIPP
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 291
VALID 130145Z - 130240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/13/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...FSD...ABR...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 291
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-009-017-031-041-075-091-101-103-111-113-115-117-149-171-
130240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN
CHERRY CUSTER GRANT
HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA
LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS
$$
SDC003-005-013-015-017-023-045-049-053-059-065-069-073-075-085-
089-095-107-115-117-119-121-123-130240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BROWN
BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX
EDMUNDS FAULK GREGORY
HAND HUGHES HYDE
JERAULD JONES LYMAN
MCPHERSON MELLETTE POTTER
SPINK STANLEY SULLY
TODD TRIPP
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 291
VALID 130030Z - 130140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/13/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...FSD...ABR...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 291
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-009-017-031-041-075-091-101-103-111-113-115-117-149-171-
130140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN
CHERRY CUSTER GRANT
HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA
LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS
$$
SDC003-005-013-015-017-023-045-049-053-059-065-069-073-075-085-
089-095-107-115-117-119-121-123-130140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BROWN
BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX
EDMUNDS FAULK GREGORY
HAND HUGHES HYDE
JERAULD JONES LYMAN
MCPHERSON MELLETTE POTTER
SPINK STANLEY SULLY
TODD TRIPP
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.