Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 292
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1010 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
TEXARKANA ARKANSAS TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF JACKSON
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG LA/AR BORDER
EAST TO CNTRL MS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD ACROSS WATCH AREA INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EAST WITH
STRONG UPPER WAVE. INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL FUEL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS MOST LIKELY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES IN
THE WARM SECTOR...AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT...ARE FORECAST
TO BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION/MESOCYCLONES WITH
EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES IN SOME AREAS FORECAST TO EXCEED 200 M2/S2.
THUS...A FEW TORNADIC SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL
THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...CARBIN
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 292
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1010 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
TEXARKANA ARKANSAS TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF JACKSON
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG LA/AR BORDER
EAST TO CNTRL MS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD ACROSS WATCH AREA INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EAST WITH
STRONG UPPER WAVE. INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL FUEL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS MOST LIKELY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES IN
THE WARM SECTOR...AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT...ARE FORECAST
TO BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION/MESOCYCLONES WITH
EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES IN SOME AREAS FORECAST TO EXCEED 200 M2/S2.
THUS...A FEW TORNADIC SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL
THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 292 TORNADO AR LA MS 101510Z - 102100Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50NNW TXK/TEXARKANA AR/ - 25NNE JAN/JACKSON MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM N/S /39NNW TXK - 16NE JAN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 35279433 33818991 31508991 32959433
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 292 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 292
VALID 101940Z - 102040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 292
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-051-053-057-059-
061-069-073-079-081-083-085-091-097-099-103-105-109-113-119-125-
127-133-139-149-102040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
DESHA DREW GARLAND
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
LONOKE MILLER MONTGOMERY
NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY
PIKE POLK PULASKI
SALINE SCOTT SEVIER
UNION YELL
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-027-035-041-049-061-065-067-073-083-107-111-
119-123-102040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN JACKSON LINCOLN
MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA
RICHLAND TENSAS UNION
WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC011-015-021-029-043-049-051-053-055-083-089-121-125-127-133-
149-151-163-102040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR CARROLL CLAIBORNE
COPIAH GRENADA HINDS
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
LEFLORE MADISON RANKIN
SHARKEY SIMPSON SUNFLOWER
WARREN WASHINGTON YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 292
VALID 101900Z - 102040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 292
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-051-053-057-059-
061-069-073-079-081-083-085-091-097-099-103-105-109-113-119-125-
127-133-139-149-102040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
DESHA DREW GARLAND
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
LONOKE MILLER MONTGOMERY
NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY
PIKE POLK PULASKI
SALINE SCOTT SEVIER
UNION YELL
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-027-035-041-049-061-065-067-073-083-107-111-
119-123-102040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN JACKSON LINCOLN
MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA
RICHLAND TENSAS UNION
WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC011-015-021-029-043-049-051-053-055-083-089-121-125-127-133-
149-151-163-102040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR CARROLL CLAIBORNE
COPIAH GRENADA HINDS
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
LEFLORE MADISON RANKIN
SHARKEY SIMPSON SUNFLOWER
WARREN WASHINGTON YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 292
VALID 101900Z - 102040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 292
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-051-053-057-059-
061-069-073-079-081-083-085-091-097-099-103-105-109-113-119-125-
127-133-139-149-102040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
DESHA DREW GARLAND
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
LONOKE MILLER MONTGOMERY
NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY
PIKE POLK PULASKI
SALINE SCOTT SEVIER
UNION YELL
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-027-035-041-049-061-065-067-073-083-107-111-
119-123-102040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN JACKSON LINCOLN
MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA
RICHLAND TENSAS UNION
WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC011-015-021-029-043-049-051-053-055-083-089-121-125-127-133-
149-151-163-102040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR CARROLL CLAIBORNE
COPIAH GRENADA HINDS
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
LEFLORE MADISON RANKIN
SHARKEY SIMPSON SUNFLOWER
WARREN WASHINGTON YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 292
VALID 101745Z - 101840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..CROSBIE..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 292
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-051-053-057-059-
061-069-073-079-081-083-085-091-097-099-103-105-109-113-119-125-
127-133-139-149-101840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
DESHA DREW GARLAND
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
LONOKE MILLER MONTGOMERY
NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY
PIKE POLK PULASKI
SALINE SCOTT SEVIER
UNION YELL
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-027-035-041-049-061-065-067-073-083-107-111-
119-123-101840-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN JACKSON LINCOLN
MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA
RICHLAND TENSAS UNION
WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC011-015-021-029-043-049-051-053-055-083-089-121-125-127-133-
149-151-163-101840-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR CARROLL CLAIBORNE
COPIAH GRENADA HINDS
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
LEFLORE MADISON RANKIN
SHARKEY SIMPSON SUNFLOWER
WARREN WASHINGTON YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 292
VALID 101630Z - 101740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 292
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-051-053-057-059-
061-069-073-079-081-083-085-091-097-099-103-105-109-113-119-125-
127-133-139-149-101740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
DESHA DREW GARLAND
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
LONOKE MILLER MONTGOMERY
NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY
PIKE POLK PULASKI
SALINE SCOTT SEVIER
UNION YELL
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-027-035-041-049-061-065-067-073-083-107-111-
119-123-101740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN JACKSON LINCOLN
MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA
RICHLAND TENSAS UNION
WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC011-015-021-029-043-049-051-053-055-083-089-121-125-127-133-
149-151-163-101740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR CARROLL CLAIBORNE
COPIAH GRENADA HINDS
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
LEFLORE MADISON RANKIN
SHARKEY SIMPSON SUNFLOWER
WARREN WASHINGTON YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.