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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 292
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
EXTREME NORTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM 845 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF
ALTUS OKLAHOMA TO 85 MILES SOUTH OF ALTUS OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 289...WW 290...WW 291...
DISCUSSION...MERGING RIGHT AND LEFT MOVING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY
SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SMALL MCS NEAR THE RED RIVER IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THOUGH THE CAP STRENGTHENS WITH EWD
EXTENT...RESIDUAL STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
STORM MERGERS. DAMAGING WINDS /INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT
BURSTS/ AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS BEFORE THE
STORM WEAKEN IN A FEW HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 292 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 130145Z - 130500Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35N LTS/ALTUS OK/ - 85S LTS/ALTUS OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM E/W /69NE CDS - 48SW SPS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.
LAT...LON 35159855 33419858 33419995 35159998
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 292 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 292
VALID 130430Z - 130500Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NNW SPS TO
20 WNW SPS TO 30 ESE CSM.
WW COULD BE EXTENDED LOCALLY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...BUT A NEW WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 292 MAY BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 13/05Z.
..KERR..05/13/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 292
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC031-033-130500-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COMANCHE COTTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 292
VALID 130320Z - 130440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE CDS
TO 15 SSW LTS TO 10 NE LTS TO 15 SE CSM.
..JEWELL..05/13/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 292
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC031-033-065-075-141-130440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COMANCHE COTTON JACKSON
KIOWA TILLMAN
$$
TXC009-023-155-197-275-485-487-130440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR FOARD
HARDEMAN KNOX WICHITA
WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 292
VALID 130240Z - 130340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..05/13/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 292
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC031-033-055-057-065-075-141-130340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COMANCHE COTTON GREER
HARMON JACKSON KIOWA
TILLMAN
$$
TXC009-023-155-197-275-485-487-130340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR FOARD
HARDEMAN KNOX WICHITA
WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
