Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 293
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA
PARTS OF WESTERN ILLINOIS
PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
LAMONI IOWA TO 70 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF BURLINGTON IOWA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...WITH STRONG TROUGH/WIND MAX PASSING BY TO THE NORTH AND
AIR MASS ACROSS WATCH AREA BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND ONLY
WEAKLY CAPPED...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE SOON. PRIMARY FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW INTO SWRN IA TO NERN
KS AND EWD ALONG WARM FRONT VICINITY IA/MO BORDER. STRONG VEERING
SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL INCLUDE NOT ONLY LARGE
HAIL AND WIND THREAT BUT ALSO TORNADOES. STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP
EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AS COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD THRU THE EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 293 TORNADO IA IL MO 131940Z - 140300Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
15WSW LWD/LAMONI IA/ - 70ESE BRL/BURLINGTON IA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM N/S /60SSW DSM - 49SSW BDF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
LAT...LON 41619419 41478990 39298990 39439419
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 293 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 293
VALID 140140Z - 140240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CDJ
TO 5 ENE MLI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 821.
..GOSS..05/14/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...ILX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 293
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-011-013-017-057-061-067-071-073-095-109-125-131-137-
149-155-161-169-171-187-195-140240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN BUREAU
CALHOUN CASS FULTON
GREENE HANCOCK HENDERSON
HENRY KNOX MCDONOUGH
MASON MERCER MORGAN
PIKE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND
SCHUYLER SCOTT WARREN
WHITESIDE
$$
IAC057-111-115-163-140240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DES MOINES LEE LOUISA
SCOTT
$$
MOC007-027-041-045-103-111-113-121-127-137-139-163-173-175-205-
219-140240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN CALLAWAY CHARITON
CLARK KNOX LEWIS
LINCOLN MACON MARION
MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE
RALLS RANDOLPH SHELBY
WARREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 293
VALID 140030Z - 140140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW CDJ
TO 20 N IRK TO 20 ENE OTM TO 25 SSW CID.
..GOSS..05/14/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...ILX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 293
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-011-013-017-057-061-067-071-073-095-109-125-131-137-
149-155-161-169-171-187-195-140140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN BUREAU
CALHOUN CASS FULTON
GREENE HANCOCK HENDERSON
HENRY KNOX MCDONOUGH
MASON MERCER MORGAN
PIKE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND
SCHUYLER SCOTT WARREN
WHITESIDE
$$
IAC057-087-101-111-115-139-163-177-183-140140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DES MOINES HENRY JEFFERSON
LEE LOUISA MUSCATINE
SCOTT VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
$$
MOC001-007-027-041-045-103-111-113-115-121-127-137-139-163-173-
175-199-205-219-140140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR AUDRAIN CALLAWAY
CHARITON CLARK KNOX
LEWIS LINCOLN LINN
MACON MARION MONROE
MONTGOMERY PIKE RALLS
RANDOLPH SCOTLAND SHELBY
WARREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 293
VALID 132330Z - 140040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE MKC TO
35 NE CDJ TO 40 E LWD TO 35 NNE OTM.
..GOSS..05/13/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...ILX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 293
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-011-013-017-057-061-067-071-073-095-109-125-131-137-
149-155-161-169-171-187-195-140040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN BUREAU
CALHOUN CASS FULTON
GREENE HANCOCK HENDERSON
HENRY KNOX MCDONOUGH
MASON MERCER MORGAN
PIKE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND
SCHUYLER SCOTT WARREN
WHITESIDE
$$
IAC007-051-057-087-101-107-111-115-123-135-139-163-177-179-183-
140040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE DAVIS DES MOINES
HENRY JEFFERSON KEOKUK
LEE LOUISA MAHASKA
MONROE MUSCATINE SCOTT
VAN BUREN WAPELLO WASHINGTON
$$
MOC001-007-027-041-045-103-111-113-115-117-121-127-137-139-163-
171-173-175-197-199-205-211-219-140040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR AUDRAIN CALLAWAY
CHARITON CLARK KNOX
LEWIS LINCOLN LINN
LIVINGSTON MACON MARION
MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE
PUTNAM RALLS RANDOLPH
SCHUYLER SCOTLAND SHELBY
SULLIVAN WARREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 293
VALID 132230Z - 132340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CDJ
TO 15 S LWD TO 20 N LWD TO 15 E DSM.
..GOSS..05/13/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...ILX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 293
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-013-017-057-061-067-071-073-095-109-125-131-137-149-
161-169-171-187-132340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN CALHOUN
CASS FULTON GREENE
HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY
KNOX MCDONOUGH MASON
MERCER MORGAN PIKE
ROCK ISLAND SCHUYLER SCOTT
WARREN
$$
IAC007-039-051-053-057-087-101-107-111-115-117-123-125-135-139-
163-177-179-181-183-185-132340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS
DECATUR DES MOINES HENRY
JEFFERSON KEOKUK LEE
LOUISA LUCAS MAHASKA
MARION MONROE MUSCATINE
SCOTT VAN BUREN WAPELLO
WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$
MOC001-007-027-041-045-061-079-081-103-111-113-115-117-121-127-
129-137-139-163-171-173-175-197-199-205-211-219-132340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR AUDRAIN CALLAWAY
CHARITON CLARK DAVIESS
GRUNDY HARRISON KNOX
LEWIS LINCOLN LINN
LIVINGSTON MACON MARION
MERCER MONROE MONTGOMERY
PIKE PUTNAM RALLS
RANDOLPH SCHUYLER SCOTLAND
SHELBY SULLIVAN WARREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 293
VALID 132140Z - 132240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..05/13/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...ILX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 293
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-017-057-061-067-071-073-095-109-125-131-137-149-161-
169-171-187-132240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN CASS
FULTON GREENE HANCOCK
HENDERSON HENRY KNOX
MCDONOUGH MASON MERCER
MORGAN PIKE ROCK ISLAND
SCHUYLER SCOTT WARREN
$$
IAC007-039-051-053-057-087-101-107-111-115-117-123-125-135-139-
163-177-179-181-183-185-132240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS
DECATUR DES MOINES HENRY
JEFFERSON KEOKUK LEE
LOUISA LUCAS MAHASKA
MARION MONROE MUSCATINE
SCOTT VAN BUREN WAPELLO
WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$
MOC001-041-045-061-079-081-103-111-115-117-121-127-129-137-163-
171-173-175-197-199-205-211-132240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHARITON CLARK
DAVIESS GRUNDY HARRISON
KNOX LEWIS LINN
LIVINGSTON MACON MARION
MERCER MONROE PIKE
PUTNAM RALLS RANDOLPH
SCHUYLER SCOTLAND SHELBY
SULLIVAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.