Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 295
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
ARDMORE OKLAHOMA TO 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PARIS TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 292...WW 293...WW 294...
DISCUSSION...DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT ALONG ADVANCING DRYLINE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SPUR ISOLD TO SCTD SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SERN OK...THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND
NERN TX. LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND POTENT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF LONG-LIVED MESOCYCLONES IN ANY DISCRETE
STORMS/UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP. TORNADO THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME INTO THE EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO
VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL...A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND MAGNITUDE OF FORCING/SHEAR FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 295 TORNADO OK TX 101840Z - 110200Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
5WSW ADM/ARDMORE OK/ - 65ENE PRX/PARIS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM N/S /5NE ADM - 33NNW TXK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 35499709 35229440 32759440 33029709
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 295 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 295
VALID 110040Z - 110140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW DAL
TO 40 NNW PRX TO 10 ENE RKR.
..CROSBIE..05/11/08
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 295
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC023-079-089-110140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW LE FLORE MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-063-067-119-147-159-181-183-203-223-277-315-343-387-423-
449-459-499-110140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
DELTA FANNIN FRANKLIN
GRAYSON GREGG HARRISON
HOPKINS LAMAR MARION
MORRIS RED RIVER SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 295
VALID 102355Z - 110040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W GYI TO
35 SSW MLC TO 25 SSE MKO.
..CROSBIE..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 295
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-023-061-077-079-089-127-110040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW
HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
MCCURTAIN PUSHMATAHA
$$
TXC037-063-067-119-147-159-181-183-203-223-277-315-343-387-423-
449-459-499-110040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
DELTA FANNIN FRANKLIN
GRAYSON GREGG HARRISON
HOPKINS LAMAR MARION
MORRIS RED RIVER SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 295
VALID 102255Z - 102340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ADM
TO 35 WSW MLC TO 35 NNW MLC.
..JPR..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 295
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-023-029-061-063-077-079-089-091-107-121-127-102340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW
COAL HASKELL HUGHES
LATIMER LE FLORE MCCURTAIN
MCINTOSH OKFUSKEE PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA
$$
TXC037-063-067-119-147-159-181-203-223-277-315-343-387-449-459-
499-102340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
DELTA FANNIN FRANKLIN
GRAYSON HARRISON HOPKINS
LAMAR MARION MORRIS
RED RIVER TITUS UPSHUR
WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 295
VALID 102200Z - 102340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW ADM
TO 20 SSE CQB.
..SPC..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 295
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-023-029-061-063-077-079-089-091-107-121-127-102340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW
COAL HASKELL HUGHES
LATIMER LE FLORE MCCURTAIN
MCINTOSH OKFUSKEE PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA
$$
TXC037-063-067-119-147-159-181-203-223-277-315-343-387-449-459-
499-102340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
DELTA FANNIN FRANKLIN
GRAYSON HARRISON HOPKINS
LAMAR MARION MORRIS
RED RIVER TITUS UPSHUR
WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 295
VALID 102025Z - 102140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 295
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-023-029-049-061-063-069-077-079-085-089-091-095-
099-107-121-123-125-127-133-102140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CHOCTAW COAL GARVIN
HASKELL HUGHES JOHNSTON
LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE
MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL
MURRAY OKFUSKEE PITTSBURG
PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA
SEMINOLE
$$
TXC037-063-067-085-119-147-159-181-203-223-231-277-315-343-379-
387-397-449-459-499-102140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
COLLIN DELTA FANNIN
FRANKLIN GRAYSON HARRISON
HOPKINS HUNT LAMAR
MARION MORRIS RAINS
RED RIVER ROCKWALL TITUS
UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 295
VALID 101940Z - 102040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 295
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-023-029-049-061-063-069-077-079-085-089-091-095-
099-107-121-123-125-127-133-102040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CHOCTAW COAL GARVIN
HASKELL HUGHES JOHNSTON
LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE
MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL
MURRAY OKFUSKEE PITTSBURG
PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA
SEMINOLE
$$
TXC037-063-067-085-119-147-159-181-203-223-231-277-315-343-379-
387-397-449-459-499-102040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
COLLIN DELTA FANNIN
FRANKLIN GRAYSON HARRISON
HOPKINS HUNT LAMAR
MARION MORRIS RAINS
RED RIVER ROCKWALL TITUS
UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (50%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.