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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 296
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
515 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 515 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLINTON OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 293...WW 294...WW 295...
DISCUSSION...RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY 23Z ALONG
THE COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD INTO N/NW OK. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG/ AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL
SUPPORT STORM FORMATION/INTENSIFICATION...AND GRADUAL EVOLUTION INTO
A LINE OF STORMS ON THE FRONT. THE INITIAL THREAT WILL BE VERY
LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS GIVEN 8.5-9 C/KM MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KT...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BECOMING COMMON THREATS LATER THIS EVENING AS
STORM COVERAGE INCREASES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 296 SEVERE TSTM OK 132215Z - 140400Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20NW BVO/BARTLESVILLE OK/ - 35SE CSM/CLINTON OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /52NNW TUL - 60N SPS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.
LAT...LON 36959473 34959726 34950026 36959781
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 296 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 296
VALID 140340Z - 140440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..05/14/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 296
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC015-037-075-081-105-109-131-143-140440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CADDO CREEK KIOWA
LINCOLN NOWATA OKLAHOMA
ROGERS TULSA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 296
VALID 140135Z - 140240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CDS
TO 30 ENE CSM TO 30 WNW BVO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 820.
..GRAMS..05/14/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 296
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC015-017-027-035-037-051-055-073-075-081-083-087-097-103-105-
107-109-111-113-115-117-119-125-131-133-143-145-147-149-
140240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND
CRAIG CREEK GRADY
GREER KINGFISHER KIOWA
LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN
MAYES NOBLE NOWATA
OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS
SEMINOLE TULSA WAGONER
WASHINGTON WASHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 296
VALID 140035Z - 140140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CSM TO
50 NE CSM TO 20 N PNC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 818.
..GRAMS..05/14/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 296
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC009-011-015-017-027-035-037-039-047-051-055-071-073-075-081-
083-087-097-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-125-131-133-143-
145-147-149-140140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO
CANADIAN CLEVELAND CRAIG
CREEK CUSTER GARFIELD
GRADY GREER KAY
KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN
LOGAN MCCLAIN MAYES
NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE
OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE
OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE
POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
WASHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 296
VALID 132335Z - 140040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S AVK TO
30 NW PNC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 818.
..GRAMS..05/13/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 296
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC009-011-015-017-027-035-037-039-043-047-051-053-055-071-073-
075-081-083-087-093-097-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-125-
131-133-143-145-147-149-140040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO
CANADIAN CLEVELAND CRAIG
CREEK CUSTER DEWEY
GARFIELD GRADY GRANT
GREER KAY KINGFISHER
KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN
MCCLAIN MAJOR MAYES
NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE
OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE
OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE
POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
WASHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (>95%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
High (70%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
