Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 296
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA
EXTREME NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF LONEROCK WISCONSIN TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
OTTUMWA IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 295...
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL PARTS OF IA AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND VERY
STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR. LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL
AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG DOWNDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN IA
WHERE DCAPE EXCEEDS 1000 J/KG. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22040.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 296 SEVERE TSTM IA IL WI 242035Z - 250300Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45WNW LNR/LONEROCK WI/ - 35SSW OTM/OTTUMWA IA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /33SE ODI - 30N IRK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.
LAT...LON 43458961 40619137 40619404 43459240
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 296 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 296
VALID 242350Z - 250040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW IRK
TO 30 ESE ALO TO 30 SSE LSE.
..GOSS..05/24/12
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 296
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC085-131-161-250040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JO DAVIESS MERCER ROCK ISLAND
$$
IAC031-043-045-051-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-113-
115-139-163-177-179-183-250040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CEDAR CLAYTON CLINTON
DAVIS DELAWARE DES MOINES
DUBUQUE HENRY IOWA
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
JONES KEOKUK LINN
LOUISA MUSCATINE SCOTT
VAN BUREN WAPELLO WASHINGTON
$$
WIC023-043-049-065-103-111-250040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD GRANT IOWA
LAFAYETTE RICHLAND SAUK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 296
VALID 242235Z - 242340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E LWD TO
5 NNE OXV TO 30 S ALO TO 10 N ALO TO 30 SSW LSE.
..GOSS..05/24/12
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 296
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC085-131-161-242340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JO DAVIESS MERCER ROCK ISLAND
$$
IAC005-007-011-013-017-019-031-043-045-051-053-055-057-061-065-
075-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-113-115-117-123-125-135-139-157-
163-171-177-179-183-185-191-242340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEE APPANOOSE BENTON
BLACK HAWK BREMER BUCHANAN
CEDAR CLAYTON CLINTON
DAVIS DECATUR DELAWARE
DES MOINES DUBUQUE FAYETTE
GRUNDY HENRY IOWA
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
JONES KEOKUK LINN
LOUISA LUCAS MAHASKA
MARION MONROE MUSCATINE
POWESHIEK SCOTT TAMA
VAN BUREN WAPELLO WASHINGTON
WAYNE WINNESHIEK
$$
WIC023-043-049-065-103-111-242340-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD GRANT IOWA
LAFAYETTE RICHLAND SAUK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 296
VALID 242140Z - 242240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..05/24/12
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 296
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC085-131-161-242240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JO DAVIESS MERCER ROCK ISLAND
$$
IAC005-007-011-013-017-019-023-031-037-039-043-045-051-053-055-
057-061-065-075-087-089-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-113-115-117-
123-125-127-135-139-157-163-171-177-179-181-183-185-191-
242240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEE APPANOOSE BENTON
BLACK HAWK BREMER BUCHANAN
BUTLER CEDAR CHICKASAW
CLARKE CLAYTON CLINTON
DAVIS DECATUR DELAWARE
DES MOINES DUBUQUE FAYETTE
GRUNDY HENRY HOWARD
IOWA JACKSON JASPER
JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES
KEOKUK LINN LOUISA
LUCAS MAHASKA MARION
MARSHALL MONROE MUSCATINE
POWESHIEK SCOTT TAMA
VAN BUREN WAPELLO WARREN
WASHINGTON WAYNE WINNESHIEK
$$
WIC023-043-049-065-103-111-242240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD GRANT IOWA
LAFAYETTE RICHLAND SAUK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.