Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 297
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
605 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM 605 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROCKFORD
ILLINOIS TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BLOOMINGTON ILLINOIS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 293...WW 294...WW
295...WW 296...
DISCUSSION...DISCRETE CELLS ARE FORMING IN THE ZONE OF WAA TO THE N
OF THE EARLY CONVECTION AND ONGOING MCV IN SE IL...AND WELL E OF THE
COLD FRONT BACK IN IA/MO. LOCAL WIND PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN IL WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER S/SE.
GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOIST PROFILES...A FEW
TORNADOES MAY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS...AND AS THE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE APPROACHES FROM THE W BY
EARLY TONIGHT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 297 TORNADO IL LM 132305Z - 140400Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30NE RFD/ROCKFORD IL/ - 30SSE BMI/BLOOMINGTON IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /41SSW BAE - 21NNE DEC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
LAT...LON 42508751 40068756 40068983 42508986
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 297 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 297
VALID 140340Z - 140440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE MLI
TO 10 SW JVL.
..GOSS..05/14/09
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 297
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-019-031-037-039-043-053-063-075-089-091-093-097-099-103-
105-107-111-113-115-123-129-141-143-147-175-179-183-197-201-203-
140440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CHAMPAIGN COOK
DEKALB DE WITT DUPAGE
FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS
KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL
LAKE LA SALLE LEE
LIVINGSTON LOGAN MCHENRY
MCLEAN MACON MARSHALL
MENARD OGLE PEORIA
PIATT STARK TAZEWELL
VERMILION WILL WINNEBAGO
WOODFORD
$$
LMZ740-741-742-140440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 297
VALID 140140Z - 140240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 821.
..GOSS..05/14/09
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 297
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-019-031-037-039-043-053-063-075-089-091-093-097-099-103-
105-107-111-113-115-123-129-141-143-147-167-175-179-183-197-201-
203-140240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CHAMPAIGN COOK
DEKALB DE WITT DUPAGE
FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS
KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL
LAKE LA SALLE LEE
LIVINGSTON LOGAN MCHENRY
MCLEAN MACON MARSHALL
MENARD OGLE PEORIA
PIATT SANGAMON STARK
TAZEWELL VERMILION WILL
WINNEBAGO WOODFORD
$$
LMZ740-741-742-140240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 297
VALID 140035Z - 140140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..05/14/09
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 297
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-019-031-037-039-043-053-063-075-089-091-093-097-099-103-
105-107-111-113-115-123-129-141-143-147-167-175-179-183-197-201-
203-140140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CHAMPAIGN COOK
DEKALB DE WITT DUPAGE
FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS
KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL
LAKE LA SALLE LEE
LIVINGSTON LOGAN MCHENRY
MCLEAN MACON MARSHALL
MENARD OGLE PEORIA
PIATT SANGAMON STARK
TAZEWELL VERMILION WILL
WINNEBAGO WOODFORD
$$
LMZ740-741-742-140140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.