Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 298
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
425 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN ARKANSAS
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 425 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 293...WW 294...WW
295...WW 296...WW 297...
DISCUSSION...IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD TOWARDS
THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS WW THIS EVENING. AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF A WARM
FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NERN AR INTO FAR SWRN TN...AND THIS FEATURE
SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NWD THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE A SETUP
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS ACROSS THE
REGION. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE ALL
POSSIBLE WELL AFTER DARK.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 298 TORNADO AR MO MS TN 102125Z - 110500Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45SW JBR/JONESBORO AR/ - 45NE TUP/TUPELO MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM N/S /46SSW ARG - 36W MSL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
LAT...LON 36529120 35888820 33568820 34209120
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 298 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 298
VALID 110400Z - 110540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PBF TO
15 SSW MEM TO 40 NE UOX TO 25 SE MKL TO 45 ENE MKL.
..JPR..05/11/08
ATTN...WFO...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 298
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC003-009-013-017-027-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119-135-
137-139-141-145-161-110540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW COAHOMA ITAWAMBA
LAFAYETTE LEE MARSHALL
MONROE PANOLA PONTOTOC
PRENTISS QUITMAN TALLAHATCHIE
TATE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO
UNION YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC023-039-071-077-109-110540-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER DECATUR HARDIN
HENDERSON MCNAIRY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 298
VALID 110155Z - 110240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
A MESOSCALE DISCUSSION CONCERNING THIS WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
..JPR..05/11/08
ATTN...WFO...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 298
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-031-035-037-055-075-077-093-107-111-121-123-110240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS GREENE LAWRENCE
LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS
POINSETT RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
$$
MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119-
135-137-139-141-143-145-161-110240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW COAHOMA DESOTO
ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE
MARSHALL MONROE PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO TUNICA UNION
YALOBUSHA
$$
MOC069-155-110240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC023-033-039-045-047-053-069-071-075-077-097-109-113-157-167-
110240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER CROCKETT DECATUR
DYER FAYETTE GIBSON
HARDEMAN HARDIN HAYWOOD
HENDERSON LAUDERDALE MCNAIRY
MADISON SHELBY TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 298
VALID 110040Z - 110140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 871.
..CROSBIE..05/11/08
ATTN...WFO...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 298
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-031-035-037-055-075-077-093-107-111-121-123-110140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS GREENE LAWRENCE
LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS
POINSETT RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
$$
MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119-
135-137-139-141-143-145-161-110140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW COAHOMA DESOTO
ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE
MARSHALL MONROE PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO TUNICA UNION
YALOBUSHA
$$
MOC069-155-110140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC023-033-039-045-047-053-069-071-075-077-097-109-113-157-167-
110140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER CROCKETT DECATUR
DYER FAYETTE GIBSON
HARDEMAN HARDIN HAYWOOD
HENDERSON LAUDERDALE MCNAIRY
MADISON SHELBY TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 298
VALID 110000Z - 110140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 868
..CROSBIE..05/10/08
ATTN...WFO...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 298
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-031-035-037-055-075-077-093-107-111-121-123-110140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS GREENE LAWRENCE
LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS
POINSETT RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
$$
MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119-
135-137-139-141-143-145-161-110140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW COAHOMA DESOTO
ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE
MARSHALL MONROE PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO TUNICA UNION
YALOBUSHA
$$
MOC069-155-110140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC023-033-039-045-047-053-069-071-075-077-097-109-113-157-167-
110140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER CROCKETT DECATUR
DYER FAYETTE GIBSON
HARDEMAN HARDIN HAYWOOD
HENDERSON LAUDERDALE MCNAIRY
MADISON SHELBY TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.