Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 301
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST INDIANA
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WESTERN OHIO
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1245 AM UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF BAD AXE MICHIGAN TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BLOOMINGTON INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 298...WW 299...WW 300...
DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS IND AND LOWER MI TONIGHT...AND INTO WESTERN OH
BEFORE DAYBREAK. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH TIME
AND EASTWARD EXTENT. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL
MAINTAIN A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24045.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 301 SEVERE TSTM IN KY MI OH LE LH 140545Z - 141100Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
65ENE BAX/BAD AXE MI/ - 50SW BMG/BLOOMINGTON IN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /47SW YVV - 48NNE PXV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
LAT...LON 44117995 38618561 38618894 44118358
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 301 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 301
VALID 140735Z - 140840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E SLO TO
10 WSW IND TO 35 W TOL TO 30 NE BAX.
..SPC..05/14/09
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...DTX...CLE...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 301
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-003-005-009-013-021-027-029-031-035-041-047-053-055-057-
059-063-065-071-075-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-109-115-119-
135-137-139-145-153-155-161-177-179-140840-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEN BARTHOLOMEW
BLACKFORD BROWN CLAY
DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR
DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN
GRANT GREENE HAMILTON
HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY
JACKSON JAY JENNINGS
JOHNSON KNOX LAWRENCE
MADISON MARION MARTIN
MONROE MORGAN OHIO
OWEN RANDOLPH RIPLEY
RUSH SHELBY SULLIVAN
SWITZERLAND UNION WAYNE
WELLS
$$
KYC015-037-117-140840-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CAMPBELL KENTON
$$
MIC063-087-091-093-099-115-125-147-151-161-163-140840-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HURON LAPEER LENAWEE
LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE
OAKLAND ST. CLAIR SANILAC
WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
OHC003-011-017-021-023-025-037-039-051-057-061-063-065-069-091-
095-107-109-113-123-125-135-137-143-147-149-161-165-171-173-175-
140840-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN AUGLAIZE BUTLER
CHAMPAIGN CLARK CLERMONT
DARKE DEFIANCE FULTON
GREENE HAMILTON HANCOCK
HARDIN HENRY LOGAN
LUCAS MERCER MIAMI
MONTGOMERY OTTAWA PAULDING
PREBLE PUTNAM SANDUSKY
SENECA SHELBY VAN WERT
WARREN WILLIAMS WOOD
WYANDOT
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ441-442-443-462-463-464-140840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
