Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 302
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 100 AM UNTIL 700 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS TO 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOUISVILLE
KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 298...WW 299...WW
300...WW 301...
DISCUSSION...LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN IL
INTO EASTERN OK. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT THROUGH A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. BOW/LEWP
STRUCTURES WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL FOR
ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30025.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 302 SEVERE TSTM AR IL IN KY MO TN 140600Z - 141200Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20SW HOT/HOT SPRINGS AR/ - 55NW SDF/LOUISVILLE KY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /58NE TXK - 56NW LOU/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30025.
LAT...LON 34259501 38728820 38728469 34259168
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 302 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 302
VALID 140735Z - 140840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..05/14/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...LMK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 302
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-019-021-023-029-031-035-037-039-045-051-053-055-059-063-
067-069-075-077-085-093-095-097-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-
119-121-123-125-135-137-141-145-147-149-140840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS CLARK CLAY
CLEBURNE CONWAY CRAIGHEAD
CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS
FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT
GREENE HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE
LEE LONOKE MISSISSIPPI
MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA
PERRY PHILLIPS PIKE
POINSETT POLK POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH
ST. FRANCIS SALINE SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF YELL
$$
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-140840-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
MASSAC PERRY POPE
PULASKI SALINE UNION
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
INC019-025-037-043-051-061-077-117-123-125-129-143-147-163-173-
175-140840-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS
FLOYD GIBSON HARRISON
JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY
PIKE POSEY SCOTT
SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK
WASHINGTON
$$
KYC007-027-033-035-039-047-055-059-075-083-091-101-103-105-107-
111-139-143-145-149-157-163-177-183-185-219-221-223-225-233-
140840-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD BRECKINRIDGE CALDWELL
CALLOWAY CARLISLE CHRISTIAN
CRITTENDEN DAVIESS FULTON
GRAVES HANCOCK HENDERSON
HENRY HICKMAN HOPKINS
JEFFERSON LIVINGSTON LYON
MCCRACKEN MCLEAN MARSHALL
MEADE MUHLENBERG OHIO
OLDHAM TODD TRIGG
TRIMBLE UNION WEBSTER
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-069-133-143-155-157-181-201-207-223-140840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PEMISCOT PERRY
RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD
WAYNE
$$
TNC045-095-097-131-167-183-140840-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DYER LAKE LAUDERDALE
OBION TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.