Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
110 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 110 AM UNTIL 700 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF FORT WORTH TEXAS TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
TEXARKANA ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 298...WW 299...WW
300...WW 301...WW 302...
DISCUSSION...WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE IS SURGING SEWD ACROSS OK AT
ROUGHLY 30 KT AND WILL SOON SPREAD INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING THROUGH A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
GENERATING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30030.
...DARROW
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 303 SEVERE TSTM AR LA OK TX 140610Z - 141200Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40WNW FTW/FORT WORTH TX/ - 55ESE TXK/TEXARKANA AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /50WNW DFW - 20WSW ELD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30030.
LAT...LON 33909801 34009312 32279312 32169801
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 303 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 303
VALID 141125Z - 141240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PRX TO
20 ESE TYR.
..SPC..05/14/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 303
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC085-097-113-119-121-139-147-181-221-223-231-251-257-277-337-
367-379-397-423-425-439-467-497-499-141240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLLIN COOKE DALLAS
DELTA DENTON ELLIS
FANNIN GRAYSON HOOD
HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON
KAUFMAN LAMAR MONTAGUE
PARKER RAINS ROCKWALL
SMITH SOMERVELL TARRANT
VAN ZANDT WISE WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 303
VALID 140740Z - 140840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..05/14/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 303
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-140840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD HOWARD
LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER
NEVADA SEVIER
$$
LAC015-017-119-140840-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO WEBSTER
$$
OKC089-140840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-063-067-085-097-113-119-121-139-147-159-181-183-203-221-
223-231-251-257-277-315-337-343-367-379-387-397-423-425-439-449-
459-467-497-499-140840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
COLLIN COOKE DALLAS
DELTA DENTON ELLIS
FANNIN FRANKLIN GRAYSON
GREGG HARRISON HOOD
HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON
KAUFMAN LAMAR MARION
MONTAGUE MORRIS PARKER
RAINS RED RIVER ROCKWALL
SMITH SOMERVELL TARRANT
TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT
WISE WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
