Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 306
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
SCOTT AFB ILLINOIS TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BLOOMINGTON
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 305...
DISCUSSION...AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
SURFACE WARM FRONT BISECTING CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NRN IL SUGGESTS THIS WARM FRONT WILL TEND TO
LIFT NWD THROUGH THE EVENING. VERY STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.
LARGER SEVERE MCS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL MO AND MOVE STEADILY
ESEWD TOWARDS E-CENTRAL MO/WRN IL THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH MAY
SUPPORT INCREASED WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 306 TORNADO IL MO 151935Z - 160300Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15WSW BLV/SCOTT AFB IL/ - 40NNE BMI/BLOOMINGTON IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /30SE STL - 36SSW JOT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 38459130 41008987 41008737 38458890
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 306 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 306
VALID 160240Z - 160340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE BLV
TO 25 NE SLO.
..GOSS..05/16/09
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...LOT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 306
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC027-029-045-121-189-160340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLINTON COLES EDGAR
MARION WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 306
VALID 160135Z - 160240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W STL TO
10 E ALN TO 15 SSW DEC TO 10 SSE CMI TO 40 NW LAF.
..GOSS..05/16/09
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...LOT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 306
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-019-027-029-041-045-051-119-121-133-135-139-163-173-183-
189-160240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CHAMPAIGN CLINTON
COLES DOUGLAS EDGAR
FAYETTE MADISON MARION
MONROE MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE
ST. CLAIR SHELBY VERMILION
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC071-099-183-189-510-160240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN JEFFERSON ST. CHARLES
ST. LOUIS
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 306
VALID 160045Z - 160140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW STL
TO 25 N ALN TO 10 WSW SPI TO 40 SSW VPZ.
..GOSS..05/16/09
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...LOT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 306
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-019-021-027-029-039-041-045-051-053-075-083-115-117-119-
121-133-135-139-147-163-167-173-183-189-160140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN
CLINTON COLES DE WITT
DOUGLAS EDGAR FAYETTE
FORD IROQUOIS JERSEY
MACON MACOUPIN MADISON
MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY
MOULTRIE PIATT ST. CLAIR
SANGAMON SHELBY VERMILION
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC071-099-183-189-510-160140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN JEFFERSON ST. CHARLES
ST. LOUIS
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 306
VALID 152235Z - 152340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW PIA
TO 25 S MMO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 838.
..GOSS..05/15/09
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...LOT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 306
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-017-019-021-027-029-039-041-045-051-053-057-061-075-083-
105-107-113-115-117-119-121-125-129-133-135-137-139-147-163-167-
169-171-173-179-183-189-203-152340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CASS CHAMPAIGN
CHRISTIAN CLINTON COLES
DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR
FAYETTE FORD FULTON
GREENE IROQUOIS JERSEY
LIVINGSTON LOGAN MCLEAN
MACON MACOUPIN MADISON
MARION MASON MENARD
MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN
MOULTRIE PIATT ST. CLAIR
SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT
SHELBY TAZEWELL VERMILION
WASHINGTON WOODFORD
$$
MOC071-099-183-189-510-152340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN JEFFERSON ST. CHARLES
ST. LOUIS
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 306
VALID 152030Z - 152140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..05/15/09
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...LOT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 306
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-017-019-021-027-029-039-041-045-051-053-057-061-075-083-
105-107-113-115-117-119-121-125-129-133-135-137-139-143-147-163-
167-169-171-173-179-183-189-203-152140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CASS CHAMPAIGN
CHRISTIAN CLINTON COLES
DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR
FAYETTE FORD FULTON
GREENE IROQUOIS JERSEY
LIVINGSTON LOGAN MCLEAN
MACON MACOUPIN MADISON
MARION MASON MENARD
MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN
MOULTRIE PEORIA PIATT
ST. CLAIR SANGAMON SCHUYLER
SCOTT SHELBY TAZEWELL
VERMILION WASHINGTON WOODFORD
$$
MOC071-099-183-189-510-152140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN JEFFERSON ST. CHARLES
ST. LOUIS
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.