Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 308
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 630 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF OLATHE KANSAS TO 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF FARMINGTON
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 305...WW 306...WW 307...
DISCUSSION...AN E-W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SWD ACROSS
CENTRAL MO IN RESPONSE TO REINFORCEMENT OF THE COLD POOL WITH
REPEATED/TRAINING CONVECTION...AND THE COLD FRONTAL STORMS IN ERN KS
WILL ALSO SPREAD EWD/SEWD INTO SE KS AND W/SW MO THROUGH LATE
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY A FEED OF MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY FROM THE S/SW...WHILE THE CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY SAG
S OF THE STRONGER BELT OF MID-UPPER FLOW. THESE FACTORS...ALONG
WITH THE ONGOING LARGELY LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...SUGGEST THAT LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER CELLS/BOWS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28030.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 308 SEVERE TSTM IL KS MO 152330Z - 160600Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
55SSW OJC/OLATHE KS/ - 25NE FAM/FARMINGTON MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /31WSW BUM - 22NNE FAM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
LAT...LON 38909512 38819011 37229011 37319512
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 308 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 308
VALID 160240Z - 160340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CNU TO
50 NNE JLN TO 35 WNW TBN TO 20 SE JEF TO 10 WNW STL.
..GOSS..05/16/09
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 308
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC157-160340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RANDOLPH
$$
KSC021-037-160340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
$$
MOC011-029-039-055-057-059-065-073-077-093-097-105-109-123-125-
145-151-161-167-169-179-186-187-203-215-217-221-225-229-
160340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON CAMDEN CEDAR
CRAWFORD DADE DALLAS
DENT GASCONADE GREENE
IRON JASPER LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MADISON MARIES
NEWTON OSAGE PHELPS
POLK PULASKI REYNOLDS
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS SHANNON
TEXAS VERNON WASHINGTON
WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 308
VALID 160135Z - 160240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CNU
TO 35 ENE SZL.
..GOSS..05/16/09
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 308
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC157-160240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RANDOLPH
$$
KSC011-021-037-160240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
$$
MOC011-013-015-029-039-051-053-055-057-059-065-073-077-083-085-
093-097-105-109-123-125-131-135-141-145-151-159-161-167-169-179-
185-186-187-203-215-217-221-225-229-160240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BATES BENTON
CAMDEN CEDAR COLE
COOPER CRAWFORD DADE
DALLAS DENT GASCONADE
GREENE HENRY HICKORY
IRON JASPER LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MADISON MARIES
MILLER MONITEAU MORGAN
NEWTON OSAGE PETTIS
PHELPS POLK PULASKI
REYNOLDS ST. CLAIR STE. GENEVIEVE
ST. FRANCOIS SHANNON TEXAS
VERNON WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 308
VALID 160025Z - 160140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..05/16/09
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 308
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC157-160140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RANDOLPH
$$
KSC011-021-037-107-121-160140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
LINN MIAMI
$$
MOC011-013-015-029-037-039-051-053-055-057-059-065-073-077-083-
085-093-097-101-105-109-123-125-131-135-141-145-151-159-161-167-
169-179-185-186-187-203-215-217-221-225-229-160140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BATES BENTON
CAMDEN CASS CEDAR
COLE COOPER CRAWFORD
DADE DALLAS DENT
GASCONADE GREENE HENRY
HICKORY IRON JASPER
JOHNSON LACLEDE LAWRENCE
MADISON MARIES MILLER
MONITEAU MORGAN NEWTON
OSAGE PETTIS PHELPS
POLK PULASKI REYNOLDS
ST. CLAIR STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS
SHANNON TEXAS VERNON
WASHINGTON WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.