Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 309
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MONTANA
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WYOMING
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL
900 PM MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GLASGOW MONTANA TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LANDER WYOMING.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 306...WW 307...WW 308...
DISCUSSION...EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY HIGH WINDS ACROSS NRN WY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN MT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES
EMANATING FROM A STRONG LARGER SCALE TROUGH HAVE BEEN AIDING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS
WHERE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.
SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ABOUT 40KT
OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 50KT THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE THE
TENDENCY TO ACQUIRE ROTATION WITH BOTH HAIL AND WIND HAZARDS
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN BACKED LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22035.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 309 SEVERE TSTM MT WY 131905Z - 140300Z
AXIS..100 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
50NW GGW/GLASGOW MT/ - 30ESE LND/LANDER WY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM EITHER SIDE /43NW GGW - 49S BOY/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
LAT...LON 48500523 42430623 42841013 48900958
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 309 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 309
VALID 140100Z - 140240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..06/14/13
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 309
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC003-009-017-033-037-055-065-067-069-071-075-079-087-095-097-
103-105-107-111-140240-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN CARBON CUSTER
GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MCCONE
MUSSELSHELL PARK PETROLEUM
PHILLIPS POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE
ROSEBUD STILLWATER SWEET GRASS
TREASURE VALLEY WHEATLAND
YELLOWSTONE
$$
WYC003-013-017-019-025-029-033-043-140240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN FREMONT HOT SPRINGS
JOHNSON NATRONA PARK
SHERIDAN WASHAKIE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 309
VALID 132345Z - 140040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1070
..ROGERS..06/13/13
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 309
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC003-009-017-033-037-055-065-067-069-071-075-079-087-095-097-
103-105-107-111-140040-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN CARBON CUSTER
GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MCCONE
MUSSELSHELL PARK PETROLEUM
PHILLIPS POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE
ROSEBUD STILLWATER SWEET GRASS
TREASURE VALLEY WHEATLAND
YELLOWSTONE
$$
WYC003-013-017-019-025-029-033-043-140040-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN FREMONT HOT SPRINGS
JOHNSON NATRONA PARK
SHERIDAN WASHAKIE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 309
VALID 132250Z - 132340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1070
..ROGERS..06/13/13
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 309
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC003-009-017-033-037-055-065-067-069-071-075-079-087-095-097-
103-105-107-111-132340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN CARBON CUSTER
GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MCCONE
MUSSELSHELL PARK PETROLEUM
PHILLIPS POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE
ROSEBUD STILLWATER SWEET GRASS
TREASURE VALLEY WHEATLAND
YELLOWSTONE
$$
WYC003-013-017-019-025-029-033-043-132340-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN FREMONT HOT SPRINGS
JOHNSON NATRONA PARK
SHERIDAN WASHAKIE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 309
VALID 132030Z - 132140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..06/13/13
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 309
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC003-009-017-033-037-055-065-067-069-071-075-079-087-095-097-
103-105-107-111-132140-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN CARBON CUSTER
GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MCCONE
MUSSELSHELL PARK PETROLEUM
PHILLIPS POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE
ROSEBUD STILLWATER SWEET GRASS
TREASURE VALLEY WHEATLAND
YELLOWSTONE
$$
WYC003-013-017-019-025-029-033-043-132140-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN FREMONT HOT SPRINGS
JOHNSON NATRONA PARK
SHERIDAN WASHAKIE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.