Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 310
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
750 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EXTREME NORTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 750 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CHILDRESS TEXAS TO 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 305...WW 306...WW
307...WW 308...WW 309...
DISCUSSION...THE BROKEN BAND OF FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE I-44 CORRIDOR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE
OTHER DRYLINE CONVECTION SPREADS EWD INTO SW OK/NW TX. THE 00Z OUN
SOUNDING REVEALS STRONG INSTABILITY S AND E OF THE ONGOING
STORMS...AS WELL AS A SUBSTANTIAL CAP THAT WILL REQUIRE FOCUSED
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT TO BREACH. IT APPEARS THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO
IS FOR A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT TO CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MERGING
CLUSTERS TO LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF A BOWING MCS NEAR OR JUST S OF
THE I-40 CORRIDOR FROM WRN INTO CENTRAL OK.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 310 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 160050Z - 160700Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25SE CDS/CHILDRESS TX/ - 20WNW SGF/SPRINGFIELD MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /19SE CDS - 19W SGF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.
LAT...LON 34160137 37319516 37319226 34169856
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 310 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 310
VALID 160435Z - 160540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE CHK TO
25 SE OKC TO 30 WSW MKO TO 25 NNE MKO TO 20 NE GMJ TO 30 ENE SGF.
..GOSS..05/16/09
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 310
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC027-041-049-087-107-111-125-133-137-160540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLEVELAND DELAWARE GARVIN
MCCLAIN OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS
$$
TXC155-485-487-160540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FOARD WICHITA WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 310
VALID 160245Z - 160340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..05/16/09
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 310
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC099-125-133-205-160340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
WILSON
$$
OKC015-017-027-031-033-035-037-041-049-051-055-057-065-075-081-
083-087-097-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-125-131-133-137-141-
143-145-147-149-160340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND
COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE GARVIN
GRADY GREER HARMON
JACKSON KIOWA LINCOLN
LOGAN MCCLAIN MAYES
NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA
OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE
ROGERS SEMINOLE STEPHENS
TILLMAN TULSA WAGONER
WASHINGTON WASHITA
$$
TXC155-197-485-487-160340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FOARD HARDEMAN WICHITA
WILBARGER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.