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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 312
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
510 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 510 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
TULSA OKLAHOMA TO 95 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 311...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT OVER NERN OK/SERN KS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVE EWD
INTO NWRN AR/SWRN MO THRU THE EVENING. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO
SUFFICE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 312 TORNADO AR KS MO OK 132210Z - 140400Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20ESE TUL/TULSA OK/ - 95NE CNU/CHANUTE KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /13ESE TUL - 25NNE BUM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
LAT...LON 36089670 38639544 38639302 36089438
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 312 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 312
VALID 140325Z - 140440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N MKO TO
15 WSW JLN TO 25 E SZL.
..HURLBUT..05/14/08
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 312
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC009-015-039-057-077-085-097-109-119-145-167-140440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BENTON CEDAR
DADE GREENE HICKORY
JASPER LAWRENCE MCDONALD
NEWTON POLK
$$
OKC041-115-140440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE OTTAWA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 312
VALID 140235Z - 140340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE TUL TO
25 NNW JLN TO 60 NNE JLN TO 15 W SZL.
..HURLBUT..05/14/08
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 312
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-143-140340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON WASHINGTON
$$
KSC021-140340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE
$$
MOC009-011-015-039-057-077-083-085-097-109-119-145-167-185-
140340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BENTON
CEDAR DADE GREENE
HENRY HICKORY JASPER
LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON
POLK ST. CLAIR
$$
OKC035-041-097-115-140340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAIG DELAWARE MAYES
OTTAWA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 312
VALID 140130Z - 140240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CQB TO
30 ENE BVO TO 50 S OJC TO 20 SE OJC.
..HURLBUT..05/14/08
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 312
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-143-140240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON WASHINGTON
$$
KSC021-037-140240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
$$
MOC009-011-013-015-039-057-077-083-085-097-109-119-145-167-185-
217-140240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BATES
BENTON CEDAR DADE
GREENE HENRY HICKORY
JASPER LAWRENCE MCDONALD
NEWTON POLK ST. CLAIR
VERNON
$$
OKC035-041-097-115-131-140240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAIG DELAWARE MAYES
OTTAWA ROGERS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 312
VALID 140030Z - 140140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CQB
TO 25 SSW CNU TO 5 N CNU TO 15 SSE OJC.
..SCHNEIDER..05/14/08
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 312
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-143-140140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON WASHINGTON
$$
KSC001-011-021-037-099-107-125-133-205-140140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BOURBON CHEROKEE
CRAWFORD LABETTE LINN
MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON
$$
MOC009-011-013-015-039-057-077-083-085-097-109-119-145-167-185-
217-140140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BATES
BENTON CEDAR DADE
GREENE HENRY HICKORY
JASPER LAWRENCE MCDONALD
NEWTON POLK ST. CLAIR
VERNON
$$
OKC035-041-097-105-113-115-117-131-147-140140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAIG DELAWARE MAYES
NOWATA OSAGE OTTAWA
PAWNEE ROGERS WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
