Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 314
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
605 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY EVENING FROM 605 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF JUNCTION TEXAS TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DEL
RIO TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 311...WW 312...
DISCUSSION...SUBTLE SRN STREAM IMPULSE AND UPSLOPE FLOW APPEAR TO BE
ENHANCING THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THE BIG BEND REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VWP/S AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH STRAIGHT LINE
HODOGRAPHS FAVORING BOTH RIGHT AND LEFT MOVING SPLITS. LARGE
HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE LARGE...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE OVER S-CENTRAL TX.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 314 SEVERE TSTM TX 132305Z - 140400Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60ENE JCT/JUNCTION TX/ - 55SSE DRT/DEL RIO TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /53ENE JCT - 45SSE DLF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
LAT...LON 30849773 28629950 28620163 30849993
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 314 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 314
VALID 140325Z - 140400Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE DRT TO
40 NE JCT.
WW 314 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 140400Z.
..HURLBUT..05/14/08
ATTN...WFO...EWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 314
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-031-053-127-171-259-265-299-325-463-507-140400-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BLANCO BURNET
DIMMIT GILLESPIE KENDALL
KERR LLANO MEDINA
UVALDE ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 314
VALID 140235Z - 140340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..05/14/08
ATTN...WFO...EWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 314
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-031-053-127-137-171-259-265-271-299-323-325-385-463-465-
507-140340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BLANCO BURNET
DIMMIT EDWARDS GILLESPIE
KENDALL KERR KINNEY
LLANO MAVERICK MEDINA
REAL UVALDE VAL VERDE
ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 314
VALID 140130Z - 140240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..05/14/08
ATTN...WFO...EWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 314
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-031-053-127-137-171-259-265-271-299-323-325-385-463-465-
507-140240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BLANCO BURNET
DIMMIT EDWARDS GILLESPIE
KENDALL KERR KINNEY
LLANO MAVERICK MEDINA
REAL UVALDE VAL VERDE
ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 314
VALID 140035Z - 140140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SCHNEIDER..05/14/08
ATTN...WFO...EWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 314
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-031-053-127-137-171-259-265-271-299-323-325-385-463-465-
507-140140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BLANCO BURNET
DIMMIT EDWARDS GILLESPIE
KENDALL KERR KINNEY
LLANO MAVERICK MEDINA
REAL UVALDE VAL VERDE
ZAVALA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.