Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 317
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
730 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA
SOUTHWEST OHIO
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 730 PM
UNTIL 200 AM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF
LAFAYETTE INDIANA TO 70 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DAYTON OHIO. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 316...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING COINCIDENT WITH WEAK FRONTAL
WAVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS IL/IND BORDER ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING NWWD
FROM THE OH RIVER TO THE FRONTAL WAVE/LOW. UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL VIGOROUS STORM UPDRAFTS WITHIN STRONGLY
SHEARED REGIME. PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW HAS ALREADY LED TO
NUMEROUS STORM SPLITS WITH BOTH RIGHT AND LEFT MOVERS FAVORED FOR
PERSISTENCE AND LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. LARGER/UPSCALE ORGANIZATION
INTO SMALL MCS POSSIBLE GIVEN INFLUENCE OF DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE
CIRCULATION. STRONG NW FLOW COULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN MORE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS IF STORM MERGERS LEAD TO MCS DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32030.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 317 SEVERE TSTM IN OH 302330Z - 310600Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25W LAF/LAFAYETTE IN/ - 70ESE DAY/DAYTON OH/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM N/S /17WSW BVT - 43SSW APE/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32030.
LAT...LON 41068741 40158301 38848301 39778741
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 317 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 317
VALID 310340Z - 310440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W IND TO
35 E IND TO 30 WSW DAY TO 45 SE DAY TO 40 W UNI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 904.
..PETERS..05/31/09
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 317
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC047-081-109-139-145-310440-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN JOHNSON MORGAN
RUSH SHELBY
$$
OHC017-027-071-131-165-310440-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CLINTON HIGHLAND
PIKE WARREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 317
VALID 310230Z - 310340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW DNV
TO 35 S FDY.
..HURLBUT..05/31/09
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 317
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC011-035-041-047-057-059-063-065-081-095-097-107-109-121-133-
135-139-145-161-165-177-310340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE DELAWARE FAYETTE
FRANKLIN HAMILTON HANCOCK
HENDRICKS HENRY JOHNSON
MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY
MORGAN PARKE PUTNAM
RANDOLPH RUSH SHELBY
UNION VERMILLION WAYNE
$$
OHC017-021-023-027-037-047-057-071-097-109-113-131-135-141-149-
165-310340-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CHAMPAIGN CLARK
CLINTON DARKE FAYETTE
GREENE HIGHLAND MADISON
MIAMI MONTGOMERY PIKE
PREBLE ROSS SHELBY
WARREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 317
VALID 310145Z - 310240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW DNV
TO 35 E LAF TO 35 ESE FWA.
..HURLBUT..05/31/09
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 317
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC011-023-035-041-045-047-057-059-063-065-081-095-097-107-109-
121-133-135-139-145-157-159-161-165-171-177-310240-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE CLINTON DELAWARE
FAYETTE FOUNTAIN FRANKLIN
HAMILTON HANCOCK HENDRICKS
HENRY JOHNSON MADISON
MARION MONTGOMERY MORGAN
PARKE PUTNAM RANDOLPH
RUSH SHELBY TIPPECANOE
TIPTON UNION VERMILLION
WARREN WAYNE
$$
OHC011-017-021-023-027-037-047-057-071-097-107-109-113-131-135-
141-149-165-310240-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUGLAIZE BUTLER CHAMPAIGN
CLARK CLINTON DARKE
FAYETTE GREENE HIGHLAND
MADISON MERCER MIAMI
MONTGOMERY PIKE PREBLE
ROSS SHELBY WARREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 317
VALID 310030Z - 310140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..05/31/09
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 317
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC001-009-011-015-017-023-035-041-045-047-053-057-059-063-065-
067-069-075-081-095-097-103-107-109-121-133-135-139-145-157-159-
161-165-169-171-177-179-181-310140-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BLACKFORD BOONE
CARROLL CASS CLINTON
DELAWARE FAYETTE FOUNTAIN
FRANKLIN GRANT HAMILTON
HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY
HOWARD HUNTINGTON JAY
JOHNSON MADISON MARION
MIAMI MONTGOMERY MORGAN
PARKE PUTNAM RANDOLPH
RUSH SHELBY TIPPECANOE
TIPTON UNION VERMILLION
WABASH WARREN WAYNE
WELLS WHITE
$$
OHC011-017-021-023-027-037-047-057-071-097-107-109-113-131-135-
141-149-165-310140-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUGLAIZE BUTLER CHAMPAIGN
CLARK CLINTON DARKE
FAYETTE GREENE HIGHLAND
MADISON MERCER MIAMI
MONTGOMERY PIKE PREBLE
ROSS SHELBY WARREN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.