Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 318
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 340 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS TO 15 MILES NORTH OF TEMPLE TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 315...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 316. WATCH NUMBER 315 316 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 340
AM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 317...
DISCUSSION...SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS...INCLUDING A FEW EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS/SUSTAINED STORMS...EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN AREA OF LOW LVL
WAA/MOISTURE INFLOW. GRADUALLY INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/UPR
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF NM UPR LOW AND RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE SUGGEST
POSSIBILITY FOR WET MICROBURSTS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO
AS THE STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY ENE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 318 SEVERE TSTM TX 140840Z - 141500Z
AXIS..110 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
10SW BAZ/NEW BRAUNFELS TX/ - 15N TPL/TEMPLE TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 95NM E/W /16E SAT - 19SSW ACT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.
REPLACES WW 315..TX
REPLACES WW 316..TX
LAT...LON 29619998 31359927 31359555 29619631
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 318 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 318
VALID 141345Z - 141440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW JCT
TO 50 WNW TPL.
..BROYLES..05/14/08
ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 318
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC021-027-031-053-055-099-145-149-171-177-209-281-285-287-299-
331-395-453-491-141440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BASTROP BELL BLANCO
BURNET CALDWELL CORYELL
FALLS FAYETTE GILLESPIE
GONZALES HAYS LAMPASAS
LAVACA LEE LLANO
MILAM ROBERTSON TRAVIS
WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 318
VALID 141240Z - 141340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 921
PORTIONS OF WW 921 MAY BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WATCH SOON.
..GUYER..05/14/08
ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 318
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC015-021-027-031-041-051-053-055-089-099-145-149-171-177-185-
209-267-281-285-287-289-299-313-319-331-395-411-453-473-477-491-
141340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUSTIN BASTROP BELL
BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON
BURNET CALDWELL COLORADO
CORYELL FALLS FAYETTE
GILLESPIE GONZALES GRIMES
HAYS KIMBLE LAMPASAS
LAVACA LEE LEON
LLANO MADISON MASON
MILAM ROBERTSON SAN SABA
TRAVIS WALLER WASHINGTON
WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 318
VALID 141125Z - 141240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 918
..GUYER..05/14/08
ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 318
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC015-021-027-031-041-051-053-055-089-099-145-149-171-177-185-
209-267-281-285-287-289-299-313-319-331-395-411-453-473-477-491-
141240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUSTIN BASTROP BELL
BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON
BURNET CALDWELL COLORADO
CORYELL FALLS FAYETTE
GILLESPIE GONZALES GRIMES
HAYS KIMBLE LAMPASAS
LAVACA LEE LEON
LLANO MADISON MASON
MILAM ROBERTSON SAN SABA
TRAVIS WALLER WASHINGTON
WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 318
VALID 141045Z - 141140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 918
..GUYER..05/14/08
ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 318
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC015-021-027-031-041-051-053-055-089-099-145-149-171-177-185-
209-267-281-285-287-289-299-313-319-331-395-411-453-473-477-491-
141140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUSTIN BASTROP BELL
BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON
BURNET CALDWELL COLORADO
CORYELL FALLS FAYETTE
GILLESPIE GONZALES GRIMES
HAYS KIMBLE LAMPASAS
LAVACA LEE LEON
LLANO MADISON MASON
MILAM ROBERTSON SAN SABA
TRAVIS WALLER WASHINGTON
WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 318
VALID 140940Z - 141040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..05/14/08
ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 318
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC015-021-027-031-041-051-053-055-089-099-145-149-171-177-185-
209-267-281-285-287-289-299-313-319-331-395-411-453-473-477-491-
141040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUSTIN BASTROP BELL
BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON
BURNET CALDWELL COLORADO
CORYELL FALLS FAYETTE
GILLESPIE GONZALES GRIMES
HAYS KIMBLE LAMPASAS
LAVACA LEE LEON
LLANO MADISON MASON
MILAM ROBERTSON SAN SABA
TRAVIS WALLER WASHINGTON
WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.