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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 319
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
750 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 750 AM UNTIL
300 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF
NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 318...
DISCUSSION...LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN E CNTRL TX
APPEARS TO HAVE AN EMBEDDED MCV. STORMS ARE BEING FED BY VERY MOIST
SELY LOW-LVL FLOW. COUPLED WITH MODEST SFC HEATING...SMALL
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS...AND 40-50 KT WSWLY MID-LVL
FLOW...SETUP COULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELL CIRCULATIONS POSING A
THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND SMALL BOWS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 319 TORNADO LA TX 141250Z - 142000Z
AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55NW IER/NATCHITOCHES LA/ - 30SE UTS/HUNTSVILLE TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM E/W /28S EIC - 30NNE IAH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
LAT...LON 32299197 30409334 30409687 32299555
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 319 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 319
VALID 141835Z - 141940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW BPT TO
15 SW IER TO 25 S MLU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0
..SCHNEIDER..05/14/08
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...FWD...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 319
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC011-021-043-059-069-079-085-115-127-141940-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUREGARD CALDWELL GRANT
LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES
SABINE VERNON WINN
$$
TXC199-241-351-403-457-141940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDIN JASPER NEWTON
SABINE TYLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 319
VALID 141750Z - 141840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE UTS
TO 35 W IER TO 15 SSW MLU.
..BROYLES..05/14/08
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...FWD...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 319
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC011-021-043-059-069-079-085-115-127-141840-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUREGARD CALDWELL GRANT
LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES
SABINE VERNON WINN
$$
TXC199-241-351-403-457-141840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDIN JASPER NEWTON
SABINE TYLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 319
VALID 141720Z - 141840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S UTS TO
10 E LFK TO 10 SSW SHV.
..BROYLES..05/14/08
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...FWD...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 319
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC011-021-031-043-059-069-079-081-085-115-127-141840-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUREGARD CALDWELL DE SOTO
GRANT LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES
RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE
VERNON WINN
$$
TXC199-201-241-291-339-351-373-403-405-407-419-457-141840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDIN HARRIS JASPER
LIBERTY MONTGOMERY NEWTON
POLK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SAN JACINTO SHELBY TYLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 319
VALID 141635Z - 141740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW UTS
TO 20 NW LFK TO 10 SE GGG.
..BROYLES..05/14/08
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...FWD...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 319
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC011-021-031-043-059-069-079-081-085-115-127-141740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUREGARD CALDWELL DE SOTO
GRANT LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES
RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE
VERNON WINN
$$
TXC005-015-089-199-201-241-291-339-347-351-365-373-403-405-407-
419-455-457-473-141740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA AUSTIN COLORADO
HARDIN HARRIS JASPER
LIBERTY MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES
NEWTON PANOLA POLK
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO
SHELBY TRINITY TYLER
WALLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 319
VALID 141530Z - 141640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CLL
TO 45 NNW UTS TO TYR.
..BROYLES..05/14/08
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...FWD...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 319
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC011-021-031-043-059-069-079-081-085-115-127-141640-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUREGARD CALDWELL DE SOTO
GRANT LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES
RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE
VERNON WINN
$$
TXC005-015-041-051-073-089-183-185-225-241-313-339-347-351-365-
373-401-403-405-407-419-423-455-457-471-473-477-141640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA AUSTIN BRAZOS
BURLESON CHEROKEE COLORADO
GREGG GRIMES HOUSTON
JASPER MADISON MONTGOMERY
NACOGDOCHES NEWTON PANOLA
POLK RUSK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO SHELBY
SMITH TRINITY TYLER
WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 319
VALID 141440Z - 141540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..05/14/08
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...FWD...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 319
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC011-021-031-043-059-069-079-081-085-115-127-141540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUREGARD CALDWELL DE SOTO
GRANT LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES
RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE
VERNON WINN
$$
TXC001-005-015-041-051-073-089-161-183-185-213-225-241-289-313-
339-347-351-365-373-401-403-405-407-419-423-455-457-471-473-477-
141540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ANGELINA AUSTIN
BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE
COLORADO FREESTONE GREGG
GRIMES HENDERSON HOUSTON
JASPER LEON MADISON
MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES NEWTON
PANOLA POLK RUSK
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO
SHELBY SMITH TRINITY
TYLER WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 319
VALID 141340Z - 141440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..05/14/08
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...FWD...HGX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 319
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC011-021-031-043-059-069-079-081-085-115-127-141440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUREGARD CALDWELL DE SOTO
GRANT LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES
RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE
VERNON WINN
$$
TXC001-005-015-041-051-073-089-161-183-185-213-225-241-289-313-
339-347-351-365-373-401-403-405-407-419-423-455-457-471-473-477-
141440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ANGELINA AUSTIN
BRAZOS BURLESON CHEROKEE
COLORADO FREESTONE GREGG
GRIMES HENDERSON HOUSTON
JASPER LEON MADISON
MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES NEWTON
PANOLA POLK RUSK
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO
SHELBY SMITH TRINITY
TYLER WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.