Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 323...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
CORRECTED FOR ADDITION OF TX/OK PANHANDLE COUNTIES
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 405 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 135
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO TO 65 MILES SOUTH OF CHILDRESS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 321...WW 322...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN NM INTO FAR WEST TX...WHILE
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
INTO WEST/WEST-CENTRAL TX. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
SUPERCELLS/MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. A MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE WIND THREAT MAY EVOLVE THIS EVENING PENDING EVOLUTION OF
ONE OR MORE MCS/S.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 34025.
...GUYER
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 323 SEVERE TSTM NM OK TX 172105Z - 180400Z
AXIS..135 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
65WSW TCC/TUCUMCARI NM/ - 65S CDS/CHILDRESS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 115NM N/S /56SSE FTI - 53S CDS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 34025.
LAT...LON 36770466 35430027 31540027 32860466
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 323 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 323
VALID 180240Z - 180340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW FST TO
40 E HOB TO 45 WSW LBB TO 20 ENE TCC TO 30 WSW GAG.
..ROGERS..06/18/13
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 323
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC003-011-017-033-045-049-059-065-069-081-083-103-107-115-117-
125-129-135-151-153-165-169-173-179-189-191-207-219-227-233-253-
263-269-279-303-305-317-329-335-345-353-359-369-375-381-383-393-
399-415-417-431-433-437-441-445-447-461-475-180340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS ARMSTRONG BAILEY
BORDEN BRISCOE BROWN
CALLAHAN CARSON CASTRO
COKE COLEMAN CRANE
CROSBY DAWSON DEAF SMITH
DICKENS DONLEY ECTOR
FISHER FLOYD GAINES
GARZA GLASSCOCK GRAY
HALE HALL HASKELL
HOCKLEY HOWARD HUTCHINSON
JONES KENT KING
LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN
MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL
MOTLEY NOLAN OLDHAM
PARMER POTTER RANDALL
REAGAN ROBERTS RUNNELS
SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING
STONEWALL SWISHER TAYLOR
TERRY THROCKMORTON UPTON
WARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 323
VALID 180140Z - 180240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N MRF TO
10 W INK TO 15 ENE CVS TO 15 WNW TCC TO 15 SSE SPD.
..ROGERS..06/18/13
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 323
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC037-180240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
QUAY
$$
OKC025-139-180240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC003-011-017-033-045-049-059-065-069-079-081-083-103-107-111-
115-117-125-129-135-151-153-165-169-173-179-189-191-195-205-207-
219-227-233-253-263-269-279-303-305-317-329-335-341-345-353-359-
369-375-381-383-389-393-399-415-417-421-431-433-437-441-445-447-
461-475-495-501-180240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS ARMSTRONG BAILEY
BORDEN BRISCOE BROWN
CALLAHAN CARSON CASTRO
COCHRAN COKE COLEMAN
CRANE CROSBY DALLAM
DAWSON DEAF SMITH DICKENS
DONLEY ECTOR FISHER
FLOYD GAINES GARZA
GLASSCOCK GRAY HALE
HALL HANSFORD HARTLEY
HASKELL HOCKLEY HOWARD
HUTCHINSON JONES KENT
KING LAMB LUBBOCK
LYNN MARTIN MIDLAND
MITCHELL MOORE MOTLEY
NOLAN OLDHAM PARMER
POTTER RANDALL REAGAN
REEVES ROBERTS RUNNELS
SCURRY SHACKELFORD SHERMAN
STERLING STONEWALL SWISHER
TAYLOR TERRY THROCKMORTON
UPTON WARD WINKLER
YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 323
VALID 180045Z - 180140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE CNM
TO 40 SW CVS TO 10 NE TAD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1115
..ROGERS..06/18/13
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 323
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC009-021-025-037-041-059-180140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CURRY HARDING LEA
QUAY ROOSEVELT UNION
$$
OKC025-139-180140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC003-011-017-033-045-049-059-065-069-079-081-083-103-107-111-
115-117-125-129-135-151-153-165-169-173-179-189-191-195-205-207-
219-227-233-253-263-269-279-301-303-305-317-329-335-341-345-353-
359-369-375-381-383-389-393-399-415-417-421-431-433-437-441-445-
447-461-475-495-501-180140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS ARMSTRONG BAILEY
BORDEN BRISCOE BROWN
CALLAHAN CARSON CASTRO
COCHRAN COKE COLEMAN
CRANE CROSBY DALLAM
DAWSON DEAF SMITH DICKENS
DONLEY ECTOR FISHER
FLOYD GAINES GARZA
GLASSCOCK GRAY HALE
HALL HANSFORD HARTLEY
HASKELL HOCKLEY HOWARD
HUTCHINSON JONES KENT
KING LAMB LOVING
LUBBOCK LYNN MARTIN
MIDLAND MITCHELL MOORE
MOTLEY NOLAN OLDHAM
PARMER POTTER RANDALL
REAGAN REEVES ROBERTS
RUNNELS SCURRY SHACKELFORD
SHERMAN STERLING STONEWALL
SWISHER TAYLOR TERRY
THROCKMORTON UPTON WARD
WINKLER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 323
VALID 172340Z - 180040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..06/17/13
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 323
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-007-009-011-015-019-021-025-033-037-041-047-059-180040-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES COLFAX CURRY
DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE
HARDING LEA MORA
QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL
UNION
$$
OKC025-139-180040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC003-011-017-033-045-059-065-069-079-107-111-115-117-125-129-
135-151-153-165-169-173-179-189-191-195-205-207-219-227-233-253-
263-269-279-301-303-305-317-329-335-341-345-353-359-369-375-381-
393-415-417-421-433-437-441-445-447-495-501-180040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS ARMSTRONG BAILEY
BORDEN BRISCOE CALLAHAN
CARSON CASTRO COCHRAN
CROSBY DALLAM DAWSON
DEAF SMITH DICKENS DONLEY
ECTOR FISHER FLOYD
GAINES GARZA GLASSCOCK
GRAY HALE HALL
HANSFORD HARTLEY HASKELL
HOCKLEY HOWARD HUTCHINSON
JONES KENT KING
LAMB LOVING LUBBOCK
LYNN MARTIN MIDLAND
MITCHELL MOORE MOTLEY
NOLAN OLDHAM PARMER
POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS
SCURRY SHACKELFORD SHERMAN
STONEWALL SWISHER TAYLOR
TERRY THROCKMORTON WINKLER
YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 323
VALID 172245Z - 172340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..06/17/13
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 323
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-007-009-011-015-019-021-025-033-037-041-047-059-172340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES COLFAX CURRY
DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE
HARDING LEA MORA
QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL
UNION
$$
OKC025-139-172340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC003-011-017-033-045-059-065-069-079-107-111-115-117-125-129-
135-151-153-165-169-173-179-189-191-195-205-207-219-227-233-253-
263-269-279-301-303-305-317-329-335-341-345-353-359-369-375-381-
393-415-417-421-433-437-441-445-447-495-501-172340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS ARMSTRONG BAILEY
BORDEN BRISCOE CALLAHAN
CARSON CASTRO COCHRAN
CROSBY DALLAM DAWSON
DEAF SMITH DICKENS DONLEY
ECTOR FISHER FLOYD
GAINES GARZA GLASSCOCK
GRAY HALE HALL
HANSFORD HARTLEY HASKELL
HOCKLEY HOWARD HUTCHINSON
JONES KENT KING
LAMB LOVING LUBBOCK
LYNN MARTIN MIDLAND
MITCHELL MOORE MOTLEY
NOLAN OLDHAM PARMER
POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS
SCURRY SHACKELFORD SHERMAN
STONEWALL SWISHER TAYLOR
TERRY THROCKMORTON WINKLER
YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.