Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 333
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN NEBRASKA
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF AKRON COLORADO TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
SHERIDAN WYOMING. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 332...
DISCUSSION...DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE
LIFT...ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING STORM INTENSITIES AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR NWD MOVING SUPERCELLS. THE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 19025.
...IMY
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 333 SEVERE TSTM CO NE SD WY 212045Z - 220400Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45SSW AKO/AKRON CO/ - 40ENE SHR/SHERIDAN WY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /39SSW AKO - 37ENE SHR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 19025.
LAT...LON 39560513 44970795 44970448 39560194
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 333 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 333
VALID 220340Z - 220400Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ITR TO
20 ESE SNY.
WW 333 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 220400Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 967
..SMITH..05/22/08
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...CYS...UNR...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 333
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC063-095-115-125-220400-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KIT CARSON PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
YUMA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 333
VALID 220235Z - 220340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW FCL TO
55 NNE DGW TO 25 WNW CDR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 966
..SMITH..05/22/08
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...CYS...UNR...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 333
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC063-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-220340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KIT CARSON LOGAN MORGAN
PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON
WELD YUMA
$$
NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-220340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL
SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX
$$
WYC015-021-027-031-220340-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOSHEN LARAMIE NIOBRARA
PLATTE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 333
VALID 220135Z - 220240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW LAR
TO 55 NE CPR TO 35 SSW 4BQ.
..SMITH..05/22/08
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...CYS...UNR...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 333
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC063-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-220240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KIT CARSON LOGAN MORGAN
PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON
WELD YUMA
$$
NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-220240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL
SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX
$$
SDC033-047-220240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUSTER FALL RIVER
$$
WYC001-005-009-011-015-021-027-031-045-220240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY CAMPBELL CONVERSE
CROOK GOSHEN LARAMIE
NIOBRARA PLATTE WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 333
VALID 220035Z - 220140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEVIT..05/22/08
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...CYS...UNR...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 333
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC063-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-220140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KIT CARSON LOGAN MORGAN
PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON
WELD YUMA
$$
NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-220140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL
SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX
$$
SDC033-047-220140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUSTER FALL RIVER
$$
WYC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-025-027-031-043-045-220140-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY CAMPBELL CARBON
CONVERSE CROOK GOSHEN
JOHNSON LARAMIE NATRONA
NIOBRARA PLATTE WASHAKIE
WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 333
VALID 212335Z - 220040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 964
..LEVIT..05/21/08
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...CYS...UNR...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 333
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC063-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-220040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KIT CARSON LOGAN MORGAN
PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON
WELD YUMA
$$
NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-220040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL
SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX
$$
SDC033-047-220040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUSTER FALL RIVER
$$
WYC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-025-027-031-043-045-220040-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY CAMPBELL CARBON
CONVERSE CROOK GOSHEN
JOHNSON LARAMIE NATRONA
NIOBRARA PLATTE WASHAKIE
WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 333
VALID 212240Z - 212340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEVIT..05/21/08
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...CYS...UNR...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 333
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC063-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-212340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KIT CARSON LOGAN MORGAN
PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON
WELD YUMA
$$
NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-212340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL
SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX
$$
SDC033-047-212340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUSTER FALL RIVER
$$
WYC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-025-027-031-043-045-212340-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY CAMPBELL CARBON
CONVERSE CROOK GOSHEN
JOHNSON LARAMIE NATRONA
NIOBRARA PLATTE WASHAKIE
WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.