Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE WISCONSIN TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF MARSEILLES ILLINOIS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ENEWD FROM IA...ALONG AND S OF
THE WARM FRONT FROM SRN WI INTO NRN IL...AND IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVING EWD FROM IA INTO SW
WI/NW IL. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR TO
THE N OF THE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVER CENTRAL IL...AND PRIMARILY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT /ESPECIALLY
WITH STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT/...BUT GENERALLY VEERED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY N OF THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIMIT THIS OVERALL THREAT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27040.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 350 SEVERE TSTM IL WI LM 081825Z - 090000Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20N MKE/MILWAUKEE WI/ - 10S MMO/MARSEILLES IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /18ENE BAE - 25SW JOT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.
LAT...LON 43228680 41228762 41228973 43228898
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 350 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 350
VALID 082145Z - 082240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW JVL
TO 25 SW RAC TO 30 NNW MKE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 993
..JEWELL..06/08/09
ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...MKX...IWX...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 350
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-031-037-043-063-089-093-097-099-103-111-141-197-201-
082240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE COOK DEKALB
DUPAGE GRUNDY KANE
KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE
LEE MCHENRY OGLE
WILL WINNEBAGO
$$
WIC059-079-101-082240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENOSHA MILWAUKEE RACINE
$$
LMZ080-644-645-646-671-673-675-740-741-742-743-777-779-872-874-
876-878-082240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5NM
OFF SHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 350
VALID 082030Z - 082140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..06/08/09
ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...MKX...IWX...GRR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 350
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-031-037-043-063-089-093-097-099-103-111-141-197-201-
082140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE COOK DEKALB
DUPAGE GRUNDY KANE
KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE
LEE MCHENRY OGLE
WILL WINNEBAGO
$$
WIC055-059-079-101-105-127-133-082140-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JEFFERSON KENOSHA MILWAUKEE
RACINE ROCK WALWORTH
WAUKESHA
$$
LMZ080-644-645-646-671-673-675-740-741-742-743-777-779-872-874-
876-878-082140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE MICHIGAN MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5NM
OFF SHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND IL
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR IL
CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO MID
LAKE
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.