Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 351
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 405 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
SAGINAW MICHIGAN TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON MICHIGAN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 350...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI
IN ADVANCE OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ENEWD
FROM WI/IL. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DESTABILIZED S OF THE WARM FRONT
WHERE TEMPERATURES OF 75-80 F AND MID 60S DEW POINTS ARE RESULTING
IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG/.
MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A
THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A
LARGE HAIL THREAT CONTINUING WITH ELEVATED STORMS N/NE OF THE WARM
FRONT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 351 TORNADO MI LH LM 082005Z - 090200Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
10NNE MBS/SAGINAW MI/ - 25WSW JXN/JACKSON MI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /9NNE MBS - 47SSE GRR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 43658230 42118326 42118658 43658569
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 351 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 351
VALID 090030Z - 090140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE BEH
TO 25 NNW GRR TO 15 N RQB.
..JEWELL..06/09/09
ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 351
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC005-015-017-025-037-045-049-057-063-065-067-073-075-077-081-
087-093-099-107-111-117-125-145-147-151-155-157-159-161-163-
090140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BAY
CALHOUN CLINTON EATON
GENESEE GRATIOT HURON
INGHAM IONIA ISABELLA
JACKSON KALAMAZOO KENT
LAPEER LIVINGSTON MACOMB
MECOSTA MIDLAND MONTCALM
OAKLAND SAGINAW ST. CLAIR
SANILAC SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA
VAN BUREN WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-090140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 351
VALID 082335Z - 090040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW BEH
TO 20 NE BEH TO 30 WSW GRR TO 20 ESE MKG TO 20 NW RQB.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 994
..JEWELL..06/08/09
ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 351
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC005-015-017-025-037-045-049-057-063-065-067-073-075-077-081-
087-093-099-107-111-117-123-125-139-145-147-151-155-157-159-161-
163-090040-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BAY
CALHOUN CLINTON EATON
GENESEE GRATIOT HURON
INGHAM IONIA ISABELLA
JACKSON KALAMAZOO KENT
LAPEER LIVINGSTON MACOMB
MECOSTA MIDLAND MONTCALM
NEWAYGO OAKLAND OTTAWA
SAGINAW ST. CLAIR SANILAC
SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA VAN BUREN
WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-LMZ844-090040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 351
VALID 082145Z - 082240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..06/08/09
ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 351
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC005-015-017-025-037-045-049-057-063-065-067-073-075-077-081-
087-093-099-107-111-117-121-123-125-139-145-147-151-155-157-159-
161-163-082240-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BAY
CALHOUN CLINTON EATON
GENESEE GRATIOT HURON
INGHAM IONIA ISABELLA
JACKSON KALAMAZOO KENT
LAPEER LIVINGSTON MACOMB
MECOSTA MIDLAND MONTCALM
MUSKEGON NEWAYGO OAKLAND
OTTAWA SAGINAW ST. CLAIR
SANILAC SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA
VAN BUREN WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-LMZ844-845-846-847-
082240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI
SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI
GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.