Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 352
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH OF
BIG SPRING TEXAS TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 350...WW 351...
DISCUSSION...RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS NW TX FROM 21-22Z...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS
COULD FORM LATER THIS EVENING ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FARTHER
NE INTO SW OK. STRONG INSTABILITY AND A WEAKENING CAP ACROSS NW TX
THROUGH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...AND THE APPROACH OF A SUBTLE
MID-UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX FROM SE NM...WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF
3000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF AT LEAST 40 KT WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS AND STORM
MERGERS/UPSCALE GROWTH LATER THIS EVENING WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN
INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ANY TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY
BE LIMITED BY THE RELATIVELY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS AND SOMEWHAT MODEST
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 352 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 082050Z - 090400Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
60N BGS/BIG SPRING TX/ - 40SE SPS/WICHITA FALLS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /42SSE LBB - 39SE SPS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.
LAT...LON 34090150 34569801 32549801 32080150
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 352 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 352
VALID 090215Z - 090340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S LBB TO
50 NNW ABI TO 15 E CDS.
..JEWELL..06/09/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...SJT...LUB...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 352
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC031-033-065-067-137-141-090340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COMANCHE COTTON JACKSON
JEFFERSON STEPHENS TILLMAN
$$
TXC009-023-033-059-077-133-151-155-197-207-227-237-253-275-335-
337-353-363-415-417-429-441-447-485-487-503-090340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BORDEN
CALLAHAN CLAY EASTLAND
FISHER FOARD HARDEMAN
HASKELL HOWARD JACK
JONES KNOX MITCHELL
MONTAGUE NOLAN PALO PINTO
SCURRY SHACKELFORD STEPHENS
TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WICHITA
WILBARGER YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 352
VALID 090035Z - 090140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 995
..JEWELL..06/09/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...SJT...LUB...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 352
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC031-033-065-067-137-141-090140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COMANCHE COTTON JACKSON
JEFFERSON STEPHENS TILLMAN
$$
TXC009-023-033-059-077-101-107-125-133-151-155-169-197-207-227-
237-253-263-269-275-335-337-353-363-415-417-429-433-441-447-485-
487-503-090140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BORDEN
CALLAHAN CLAY COTTLE
CROSBY DICKENS EASTLAND
FISHER FOARD GARZA
HARDEMAN HASKELL HOWARD
JACK JONES KENT
KING KNOX MITCHELL
MONTAGUE NOLAN PALO PINTO
SCURRY SHACKELFORD STEPHENS
STONEWALL TAYLOR THROCKMORTON
WICHITA WILBARGER YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 352
VALID 082335Z - 090040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..06/08/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...SJT...LUB...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 352
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC031-033-065-067-137-141-090040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COMANCHE COTTON JACKSON
JEFFERSON STEPHENS TILLMAN
$$
TXC009-023-033-059-077-101-107-125-133-151-155-169-197-207-227-
237-253-263-269-275-335-337-353-363-415-417-429-433-441-447-485-
487-503-090040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BORDEN
CALLAHAN CLAY COTTLE
CROSBY DICKENS EASTLAND
FISHER FOARD GARZA
HARDEMAN HASKELL HOWARD
JACK JONES KENT
KING KNOX MITCHELL
MONTAGUE NOLAN PALO PINTO
SCURRY SHACKELFORD STEPHENS
STONEWALL TAYLOR THROCKMORTON
WICHITA WILBARGER YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 352
VALID 082145Z - 082240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..06/08/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...SJT...LUB...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 352
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC031-033-065-067-137-141-082240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COMANCHE COTTON JACKSON
JEFFERSON STEPHENS TILLMAN
$$
TXC009-023-033-059-077-101-107-125-133-151-155-169-197-207-227-
237-253-263-269-275-335-337-353-363-415-417-429-433-441-447-485-
487-503-082240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BORDEN
CALLAHAN CLAY COTTLE
CROSBY DICKENS EASTLAND
FISHER FOARD GARZA
HARDEMAN HASKELL HOWARD
JACK JONES KENT
KING KNOX MITCHELL
MONTAGUE NOLAN PALO PINTO
SCURRY SHACKELFORD STEPHENS
STONEWALL TAYLOR THROCKMORTON
WICHITA WILBARGER YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (60%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.