Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
905 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 905 AM UNTIL
300 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CONCORDIA KANSAS TO 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KNOB NOSTER
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...A LARGE REGION OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
IN RESPONSE TO WAA IN A ZONE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF
2000-2500 J/KG/. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SPREAD
EWD/ESEWD ACROSS KS TOWARD WRN MO THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING RISK OF LARGE HAIL. IN THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME...THERE
WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED WITH
AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE SRN
FLANK OF THE LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 354 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 091405Z - 092000Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35SW CNK/CONCORDIA KS/ - 60SE SZL/KNOB NOSTER MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /27WNW SLN - 50SSW COU/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
LAT...LON 39979811 38909276 37319276 38389811
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 354 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 354
VALID 091840Z - 091940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW CNK TO
25 WNW EMP TO 10 E EMP TO 40 ENE EMP TO 25 WSW OJC TO 15 SW FLV
TO 20 W FLV.
..MEAD..06/09/09
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 354
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-003-005-017-031-053-059-073-091-103-105-107-113-115-121-
169-207-209-091940-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON
CHASE COFFEY ELLSWORTH
FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH LINCOLN LINN
MCPHERSON MARION MIAMI
SALINE WOODSON WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC013-015-037-047-083-095-101-141-165-091940-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATES BENTON CASS
CLAY HENRY JACKSON
JOHNSON MORGAN PLATTE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 354
VALID 091640Z - 091740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1002.
..MEAD..06/09/09
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 354
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-003-005-011-013-017-027-029-031-037-041-045-053-059-061-
073-085-087-091-103-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-127-131-139-143-
149-157-161-169-177-197-201-207-209-091740-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON
BOURBON BROWN CHASE
CLAY CLOUD COFFEY
CRAWFORD DICKINSON DOUGLAS
ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN GEARY
GREENWOOD JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINCOLN
LINN LYON MCPHERSON
MARION MARSHALL MIAMI
MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC
RILEY SALINE SHAWNEE
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WOODSON
WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC011-013-015-029-037-039-047-057-059-083-085-095-101-141-165-
167-185-217-091740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BATES BENTON
CAMDEN CASS CEDAR
CLAY DADE DALLAS
HENRY HICKORY JACKSON
JOHNSON MORGAN PLATTE
POLK ST. CLAIR VERNON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 354
VALID 091550Z - 091640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..06/09/09
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 354
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-003-005-011-013-017-027-029-031-037-041-045-053-059-061-
073-085-087-091-103-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-127-131-139-143-
149-157-161-169-177-197-201-207-209-091640-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON
BOURBON BROWN CHASE
CLAY CLOUD COFFEY
CRAWFORD DICKINSON DOUGLAS
ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN GEARY
GREENWOOD JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINCOLN
LINN LYON MCPHERSON
MARION MARSHALL MIAMI
MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC
RILEY SALINE SHAWNEE
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WOODSON
WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC011-013-015-029-037-039-047-057-059-083-085-095-101-141-165-
167-185-217-091640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BATES BENTON
CAMDEN CASS CEDAR
CLAY DADE DALLAS
HENRY HICKORY JACKSON
JOHNSON MORGAN PLATTE
POLK ST. CLAIR VERNON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.