Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 357
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
JOPLIN MISSOURI TO 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF WEST PLAINS MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 354...WW 355...WW 356...
DISCUSSION...THE EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION IN ERN KS APPEARS TO BE
EVOLVING INTO A SURFACE-BASED...HP SUPERCELL TO THE NE OF CNU AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD INTO SW MO/SE KS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION. THE COMBINATION OF MLCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WILL FAVOR PERSISTENT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESENCE OF 68-70
F DEW POINTS AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29030.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 357 TORNADO KS MO 091830Z - 100300Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
30WNW JLN/JOPLIN MO/ - 45NE UNO/WEST PLAINS MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /14NE OSW - 58WSW FAM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29030.
LAT...LON 38049500 37939129 36499129 36599500
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 357 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 357
VALID 100030Z - 100140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..06/10/09
ATTN...WFO...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 357
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC011-021-037-100140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
$$
MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-065-067-077-085-091-097-105-
109-119-125-131-141-145-149-153-161-167-169-185-203-209-213-215-
217-225-229-100140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BENTON
CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN
DADE DALLAS DENT
DOUGLAS GREENE HICKORY
HOWELL JASPER LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD MARIES
MILLER MORGAN NEWTON
OREGON OZARK PHELPS
POLK PULASKI ST. CLAIR
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS VERNON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 357
VALID 092230Z - 092340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..06/09/09
ATTN...WFO...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 357
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC011-021-037-092340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
$$
MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-065-067-077-085-091-097-105-
109-119-125-131-141-145-149-153-161-167-169-185-203-209-213-215-
217-225-229-092340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BENTON
CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN
DADE DALLAS DENT
DOUGLAS GREENE HICKORY
HOWELL JASPER LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD MARIES
MILLER MORGAN NEWTON
OREGON OZARK PHELPS
POLK PULASKI ST. CLAIR
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS VERNON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 357
VALID 092030Z - 092140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..06/09/09
ATTN...WFO...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 357
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC011-021-037-092140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
$$
MOC009-011-029-039-043-057-059-065-067-077-085-091-097-105-109-
119-145-149-153-161-167-169-185-203-209-213-215-217-225-229-
092140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON CAMDEN
CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE
DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS
GREENE HICKORY HOWELL
JASPER LACLEDE LAWRENCE
MCDONALD NEWTON OREGON
OZARK PHELPS POLK
PULASKI ST. CLAIR SHANNON
STONE TANEY TEXAS
VERNON WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 357
VALID 091930Z - 092040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..06/09/09
ATTN...WFO...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 357
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC011-021-037-092040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
$$
MOC009-011-029-039-043-057-059-065-067-077-085-091-097-105-109-
119-145-149-153-161-167-169-185-203-209-213-215-217-225-229-
092040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON CAMDEN
CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE
DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS
GREENE HICKORY HOWELL
JASPER LACLEDE LAWRENCE
MCDONALD NEWTON OREGON
OZARK PHELPS POLK
PULASKI ST. CLAIR SHANNON
STONE TANEY TEXAS
VERNON WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (60%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.