Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 359
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF FARMINGTON MISSOURI TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF PADUCAH KENTUCKY.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 355...WW 356...WW
357...WW 358...
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WILL DRIFT
EWD ACROSS SE MO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL STORMS COULD
POSE A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT AND THAT
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. OTHERWISE...THE LONGER-TERM
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY FOCUS ON MERGING CONVECTION IN CENTRAL MO
WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS IT APPROACHES SE MO/SRN IL/WRN KY LATER
THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 359 SEVERE TSTM IL KY MO 092040Z - 100400Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50SW FAM/FARMINGTON MO/ - 10NE PAH/PADUCAH KY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM N/S /47WSW FAM - 62SW PXV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.
LAT...LON 37909106 37818863 36528863 36619106
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 359 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 359
VALID 100030Z - 100140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..06/10/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 359
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-087-127-153-181-100140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER JOHNSON MASSAC
PULASKI UNION
$$
KYC007-039-075-083-105-145-100140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
GRAVES HICKMAN MCCRACKEN
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-055-093-123-133-143-157-179-181-186-187-201-
207-221-223-100140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER CRAWFORD IRON
MADISON MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
PERRY REYNOLDS RIPLEY
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS SCOTT
STODDARD WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 359
VALID 092235Z - 092340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..06/09/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 359
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-087-127-153-181-092340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER JOHNSON MASSAC
PULASKI UNION
$$
KYC007-039-075-083-105-145-092340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
GRAVES HICKMAN MCCRACKEN
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-055-093-123-133-143-157-179-181-186-187-201-
207-221-223-092340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER CRAWFORD IRON
MADISON MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
PERRY REYNOLDS RIPLEY
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS SCOTT
STODDARD WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.