Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 362
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 130 AM UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
OXFORD MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 361...
DISCUSSION...WELL ORGANIZED BOW ECHO MOVING ACROSS NCNTRL AR ATTM
WILL TRACK TOWARD THE MS RIVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS ARE
MOVING INTO A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND COEXIST WITHIN BELT OF
STRONGER LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OF 30-50KT. MODEST LOW LEVEL
ASCENT/WAA ON THE NOSE OF NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET MAY
CONTINUE TO AID UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND SWRN
FLANK OF THIS SMALL MCS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS LONG AS BOWING
STRUCTURE IS MAINTAINED/EVIDENT...THE CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL EXIST.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30035.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 362 SEVERE TSTM AR MS TN 100630Z - 101100Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50NNW LIT/LITTLE ROCK AR/ - 20NNE UOX/OXFORD MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /47NNW LIT - 38SE MEM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30035.
LAT...LON 36119256 35368940 33918940 34659256
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 362 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 362
VALID 100845Z - 100940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW LIT
TO 30 NE LIT TO 30 S BVX TO 10 SW FLP.
..PETERS..06/10/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 362
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-023-035-037-063-067-077-085-095-107-111-117-123-145-147-
100940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS CLEBURNE CRITTENDEN
CROSS INDEPENDENCE JACKSON
LEE LONOKE MONROE
PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE
ST. FRANCIS WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
MSC013-027-033-071-093-107-119-135-137-143-161-100940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN COAHOMA DESOTO
LAFAYETTE MARSHALL PANOLA
QUITMAN TALLAHATCHIE TATE
TUNICA YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC047-157-167-100940-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAYETTE SHELBY TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.