Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 368
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 640 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF FLIPPIN ARKANSAS TO 80 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
PARIS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 365...WW 366...WW 367...
DISCUSSION...TWO SEPARATE FORWARD-PROPAGATING/BOW MCS...ONE IN E
CNTRL OK AND THE OTHER NOW OVER THE DFW AREA...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
GENERALLY ENE AT 40-50 KTS...SUPPORTED IN PART BY ASCENT AHEAD OF
EJECTING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PATTERN OF SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY ACROSS REGION...AND PRESENCE OF EXISTING INDEPENDENT
STORMS IN WAA AREA AHEAD OF BOW...SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST PART OF DFW
COMPLEX SHOULD AFFECT NE TX/FAR SE OK. PART OF OK BOW LIKELY TO SEE
STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT IS MORE NEBULOUS...GIVEN PASSAGE OF WEAKENING
MCSS IN NRN/NERN AR EARLIER IN THE DAY.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 368 SEVERE TSTM AR LA OK TX 102340Z - 110700Z
AXIS..100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40ENE FLP/FLIPPIN AR/ - 80SSE PRX/PARIS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /45WNW ARG - 12NW GGG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
LAT...LON 36409001 32549320 32549663 36409359
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 368 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 368
VALID 110645Z - 110700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW PBF
TO 25 SSW LIT TO 30 SE RUE TO 35 NE LIT TO 55 SSE BVX.
PART OF WW 368 WILL BE EXTENDED IN TIME BEYOND 110700Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1038.
..PETERS..06/11/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 368
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-025-041-043-053-069-079-085-095-117-119-125-110700-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS CLEVELAND DESHA
DREW GRANT JEFFERSON
LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE
PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 368
VALID 110550Z - 110640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ELD
TO 35 NNW ELD TO 25 WSW HOT TO 30 WNW HOT TO 25 N HOT TO 35 NE
LIT TO 55 SSE BVX.
..PETERS..06/11/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 368
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-019-025-039-041-043-051-053-059-069-079-085-095-
097-103-117-119-125-110640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLEVELAND DALLAS
DESHA DREW GARLAND
GRANT HOT SPRING JEFFERSON
LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE
MONTGOMERY OUACHITA PRAIRIE
PULASKI SALINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 368
VALID 110440Z - 110540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 N RKR TO
20 S JBR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1037
..GUYER..06/11/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 368
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC013-019-025-027-039-045-051-053-057-059-061-069-073-081-085-
091-097-099-103-105-109-113-117-119-125-127-133-139-145-149-
110540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CLARK CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA DALLAS FAULKNER
GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD JEFFERSON
LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LONOKE
MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA
OUACHITA PERRY PIKE
POLK PRAIRIE PULASKI
SALINE SCOTT SEVIER
UNION WHITE YELL
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-031-081-119-110540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO RED RIVER
WEBSTER
$$
OKC089-110540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-365-387-401-423-449-459-
499-110540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
CHEROKEE FRANKLIN GREGG
HARRISON MARION MORRIS
PANOLA RED RIVER RUSK
SMITH TITUS UPSHUR
WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 368
VALID 110255Z - 110340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..06/11/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 368
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-013-019-023-025-027-029-039-045-049-051-053-057-059-
061-063-065-067-069-071-073-081-083-085-089-091-097-099-101-103-
105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-129-133-135-137-139-141-145-147-
149-110340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CALHOUN
CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS
FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
LONOKE MARION MILLER
MONTGOMERY NEVADA NEWTON
OUACHITA PERRY PIKE
POLK POPE PRAIRIE
PULASKI SALINE SCOTT
SEARCY SEVIER SHARP
STONE UNION VAN BUREN
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-031-081-119-110340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO RED RIVER
WEBSTER
$$
OKC089-110340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-365-387-401-423-449-459-
499-110340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
CHEROKEE FRANKLIN GREGG
HARRISON MARION MORRIS
PANOLA RED RIVER RUSK
SMITH TITUS UPSHUR
WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 368
VALID 110045Z - 110140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..06/11/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 368
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC005-009-013-019-023-025-027-029-039-045-049-051-053-057-059-
061-063-065-067-069-071-073-081-083-085-089-091-097-099-101-103-
105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-129-133-135-137-139-141-145-147-
149-110140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAXTER BOONE CALHOUN
CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS
FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
LONOKE MARION MILLER
MONTGOMERY NEVADA NEWTON
OUACHITA PERRY PIKE
POLK POPE PRAIRIE
PULASKI SALINE SCOTT
SEARCY SEVIER SHARP
STONE UNION VAN BUREN
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
$$
LAC015-017-027-119-110140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE
WEBSTER
$$
OKC089-110140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-315-343-387-423-449-459-499-110140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
MARION MORRIS RED RIVER
SMITH TITUS UPSHUR
WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.