Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 371
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
EAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1150 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF
NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA TO 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF OXFORD
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 367...WW 368...WW
369...WW 370...
DISCUSSION...SW AR/NW LA BOW MCS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENE AT ABOUT
40 KTS. SHV VWP SAMPLED 50 KT WLY REAR INFLOW JET WITH SYSTEM.
COUPLED WITH EXISTING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY PATTERN...EXPECT THAT
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A CHANCE FOR DMGG WINDS AT
LEAST AS FAR E AS THE MS RVR. MORE PERSISTENT/TRAINING STORMS ON
TRAILING SW PART OF ASSOCIATED ELONGATING COLD POOL MAY POSE A
THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL THROUGH 10Z ACROSS NRN LA.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 371 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS TX 110450Z - 111000Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25W IER/NATCHITOCHES LA/ - 40WNW UOX/OXFORD MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /60WNW AEX - 29SSW MEM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
LAT...LON 31729480 34599150 34598886 31729225
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 371 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 371
VALID 110925Z - 111000Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW UOX
TO 25 W UOX TO 45 SW MEM.
WW 371 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 111000Z.
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO WANE AS ATTENDANT
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WEAKENS...GIVEN WARMING CLOUD TOPS.
..PETERS..06/11/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 371
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC077-111000-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LEE
$$
MSC033-137-143-111000-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DESOTO TATE TUNICA
$$
TNC157-111000-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 371
VALID 110835Z - 110940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW GWO
TO 15 NW GLH TO 55 NNE GLH TO 50 SW MEM.
..PETERS..06/11/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 371
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC077-107-110940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LEE PHILLIPS
$$
MSC011-015-027-033-043-083-107-119-133-135-137-143-161-110940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR CARROLL COAHOMA
DESOTO GRENADA LEFLORE
PANOLA QUITMAN SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA
YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC157-110940-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 371
VALID 110745Z - 110840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE GLH TO
20 E LLQ TO 40 NE PBF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1040.
..PETERS..06/11/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 371
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC077-107-110840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LEE PHILLIPS
$$
MSC011-015-027-043-051-053-083-107-119-133-135-137-143-151-161-
110840-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR CARROLL COAHOMA
GRENADA HOLMES HUMPHREYS
LEFLORE PANOLA QUITMAN
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TATE
TUNICA WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 371
VALID 110655Z - 110740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE MLU
TO 20 N MLU TO 15 SE LLQ TO 20 SSE PBF TO 10 WSW PBF.
..PETERS..06/11/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 371
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-077-107-110740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT LEE
PHILLIPS
$$
LAC035-041-065-067-083-123-110740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON
MOREHOUSE RICHLAND WEST CARROLL
$$
MSC011-015-027-043-051-053-055-083-107-119-125-133-135-137-143-
151-161-110740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR CARROLL COAHOMA
GRENADA HOLMES HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA LEFLORE PANOLA
QUITMAN SHARKEY SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA
WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 371
VALID 110550Z - 110640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..06/11/09
ATTN...WFO...JAN...MEG...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 371
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-077-107-139-110640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT LEE
PHILLIPS UNION
$$
LAC013-015-021-027-031-035-041-049-061-065-067-069-073-081-083-
085-111-119-123-127-110640-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CALDWELL
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN JACKSON LINCOLN
MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES
OUACHITA RED RIVER RICHLAND
SABINE UNION WEBSTER
WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
MSC011-015-027-043-051-053-055-083-107-119-125-133-135-137-143-
151-161-110640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR CARROLL COAHOMA
GRENADA HOLMES HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA LEFLORE PANOLA
QUITMAN SHARKEY SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA
WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA
$$
TXC347-419-110640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
NACOGDOCHES SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.