Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 381
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 545 PM
UNTIL 100 AM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
EVANSVILLE INDIANA TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN
KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 375...WW 376...WW
378...WW 379...WW 380...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORMING INVOF EWD-MOVING UPR
VORT...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S.
COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT...SLIGHTLY-BACKED FLOW
ALONG NW-SE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT...WEAK LOW LVL FORCING...AND
40+ KT DEEP WLY SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SCTD SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. STORMS SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE INTO A SMALL CLUSTER LATER THIS EVE...WITH EMBEDDED
SMALL LEWPS CONTINUING TO POSE A POSSIBLE SVR THREAT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 381 TORNADO IL IN KY 112145Z - 120500Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45NNE EVV/EVANSVILLE IN/ - 20SSE BWG/BOWLING GREEN KY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /49NNE PXV - 16SSE BWG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
LAT...LON 38618554 36688466 36688791 38618887
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 381 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 381
VALID 120235Z - 120340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PAH TO
15 SE BWG.
..GUYER..06/12/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 381
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC003-033-047-053-057-141-143-171-213-219-221-120340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN CALDWELL CHRISTIAN
CLINTON CUMBERLAND LOGAN
LYON MONROE SIMPSON
TODD TRIGG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 381
VALID 112330Z - 120040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1060.
..GRAMS..06/11/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 381
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC047-059-065-069-165-185-191-193-120040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDWARDS GALLATIN HAMILTON
HARDIN SALINE WABASH
WAYNE WHITE
$$
INC019-025-037-043-051-061-077-117-123-125-129-143-147-163-173-
175-120040-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS
FLOYD GIBSON HARRISON
JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY
PIKE POSEY SCOTT
SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK
WASHINGTON
$$
KYC001-003-005-009-021-027-029-031-033-045-047-053-055-057-059-
061-085-087-091-093-099-101-107-111-123-137-141-143-149-155-163-
167-169-171-177-179-183-185-207-211-213-215-217-219-221-223-225-
227-229-233-120040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON
BARREN BOYLE BRECKINRIDGE
BULLITT BUTLER CALDWELL
CASEY CHRISTIAN CLINTON
CRITTENDEN CUMBERLAND DAVIESS
EDMONSON GRAYSON GREEN
HANCOCK HARDIN HART
HENDERSON HOPKINS JEFFERSON
LARUE LINCOLN LOGAN
LYON MCLEAN MARION
MEADE MERCER METCALFE
MONROE MUHLENBERG NELSON
OHIO OLDHAM RUSSELL
SHELBY SIMPSON SPENCER
TAYLOR TODD TRIGG
TRIMBLE UNION WARREN
WASHINGTON WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.