Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
A SMALL PART OF FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 845 PM
UNTIL 400 AM MDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF
LAMAR COLORADO TO 30 MILES EAST OF GARDEN CITY KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 380. WATCH NUMBER 380 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 845 PM MDT. CONTINUE...WW 378...WW 381...WW 383...
DISCUSSION...SE CO SUPERCELLS APPEAR TO BE GRADUALLY EVOLVING INTO A
SMALL FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS. AREA THERMODYNAMIC/WIND DATA SUGGEST
THAT SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE MAINLY E OR ESE...WITH SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWING AN APPARENT UPR IMPULSE IN WRN CO TO MAINTAIN MODEST LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. AMPLE LOW LVL AND DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR
EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS. ASSOCIATED LEWPS COULD YIELD HIGH
WIND/HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO THROUGH EARLY FRI.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28030.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 384 SEVERE TSTM CO KS 120245Z - 121000Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
5S LAA/LAMAR CO/ - 30E GCK/GARDEN CITY KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /12S LAA - 27E GCK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
REPLACES WW 380..CO OK
LAT...LON 38720268 38650016 37200016 37270268
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 384 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 384
VALID 120845Z - 120940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW LBL TO
15 NW DDC.
..BROYLES..06/12/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...DDC...GLD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 384
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC025-057-119-175-120940-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK FORD MEADE
SEWARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 384
VALID 120735Z - 120840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EHA TO 15
WSW GCK TO 50 SSW HLC.
..BROYLES..06/12/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...DDC...GLD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 384
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC025-055-057-069-081-119-175-189-120840-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK FINNEY FORD
GRAY HASKELL MEADE
SEWARD STEVENS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 384
VALID 120645Z - 120740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW EHA TO
30 W GCK TO 55 N GCK.
..BROYLES..06/12/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...DDC...GLD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 384
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC025-055-057-067-069-081-101-119-129-175-189-120740-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK FINNEY FORD
GRANT GRAY HASKELL
LANE MEADE MORTON
SEWARD STEVENS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 384
VALID 120425Z - 120540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW EHA
TO 40 SSE ITR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069
..GUYER..06/12/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...DDC...GLD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 384
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC055-067-069-071-075-081-093-101-119-129-171-175-187-189-203-
120540-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FINNEY GRANT GRAY
GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL
KEARNY LANE MEADE
MORTON SCOTT SEWARD
STANTON STEVENS WICHITA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.