Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1015 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST
OF BROWNWOOD TEXAS TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF AUSTIN TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 381...WW 383...WW 384...
DISCUSSION...WDLY SCTD SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS EXPECTED ATOP COLD POOL LEFT FROM WEAKENING STORM CLUSTER
NOW SE OF AUS. MODEST BUT SUSTAINED MOIST SSWLY LLJ BENEATH DEEP
EML WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO....DESPITE ABSENCE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31015.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 385 SEVERE TSTM TX 120315Z - 121000Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
45WSW BWD/BROWNWOOD TX/ - 30ESE AUS/AUSTIN TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM EITHER SIDE /42ENE SJT - 26ESE AUS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 31015.
LAT...LON 32229916 30809675 29459772 30870015
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 385 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 385
VALID 120425Z - 120540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..06/12/09
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 385
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC021-027-031-049-053-055-083-093-095-099-171-193-209-267-281-
287-299-307-319-327-331-333-399-411-453-491-120540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BASTROP BELL BLANCO
BROWN BURNET CALDWELL
COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO
CORYELL GILLESPIE HAMILTON
HAYS KIMBLE LAMPASAS
LEE LLANO MCCULLOCH
MASON MENARD MILAM
MILLS RUNNELS SAN SABA
TRAVIS WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
