Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 386
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 205 AM UNTIL 800 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF DODGE CITY KANSAS TO 60 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 384...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST KS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS/NORTHERN OK. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT SOME
TENDENCY TOWARD BOWING LINE SEGMENTS MAY OCCUR BY DAYBREAK WITH AN
INCREASING RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 386 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 120705Z - 121300Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
20SSW DDC/DODGE CITY KS/ - 60ENE PNC/PONCA CITY OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /39SE GCK - 43W OSW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.
LAT...LON 38290011 37849608 36259608 36700011
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 386 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 386
VALID 121035Z - 121140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E LBL TO
35 SE DDC TO 45 S RSL.
..BROYLES..06/12/09
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 386
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-015-019-033-035-049-077-079-095-097-151-155-173-185-191-
121140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA
COMANCHE COWLEY ELK
HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN
KIOWA PRATT RENO
SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER
$$
OKC003-047-053-059-071-103-113-117-119-151-121140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA GARFIELD GRANT
HARPER KAY NOBLE
OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE
WOODS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 386
VALID 120850Z - 120940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..06/12/09
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 386
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-015-019-033-035-047-049-077-079-083-095-097-135-145-151-
155-165-173-185-191-120940-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA
COMANCHE COWLEY EDWARDS
ELK HARPER HARVEY
HODGEMAN KINGMAN KIOWA
NESS PAWNEE PRATT
RENO RUSH SEDGWICK
STAFFORD SUMNER
$$
OKC003-047-053-059-071-103-113-117-119-151-120940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA GARFIELD GRANT
HARPER KAY NOBLE
OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE
WOODS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.