Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 745 AM UNTIL 300
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 386...
DISCUSSION...STRENGTHENING BOW ECHO OVER NORTH CENTRAL OK IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AND TRACK INTO WESTERN AR LATER
TODAY...AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF
3000-4000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO MAINTAIN RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 387 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 121245Z - 122000Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40WSW PNC/PONCA CITY OK/ - 40ESE FYV/FAYETTEVILLE AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM N/S /12NE END - 41SE RZC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29035.
LAT...LON 37439776 36729351 34849351 35569776
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 387 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 387
VALID 121740Z - 121840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW RKR
TO 5 NW MKO TO 30 E TUL TO 25 WSW JLN.
..MEAD..06/12/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC009-119-145-153-209-213-121840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY MCDONALD NEWTON
OZARK STONE TANEY
$$
OKC035-041-097-115-121840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAIG DELAWARE MAYES
OTTAWA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 387
VALID 121640Z - 121740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S CQB TO
30 NNE CQB TO 10 WSW TUL TO 30 N BVO.
..MEAD..06/12/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-121740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-119-145-209-121740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY MCDONALD NEWTON
STONE
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-061-063-077-079-091-097-101-105-107-111-
115-121-131-133-135-143-145-147-121740-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE HASKELL
HUGHES LATIMER LE FLORE
MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE
NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
OTTAWA PITTSBURG ROGERS
SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 387
VALID 121535Z - 121640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE END
TO 30 S PNC TO 25 N BVO.
..MEAD..06/12/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-121640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-119-145-209-121640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY MCDONALD NEWTON
STONE
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-061-063-077-079-081-091-097-101-105-107-
111-113-115-117-119-121-131-133-135-143-145-147-121640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE HASKELL
HUGHES LATIMER LE FLORE
LINCOLN MCINTOSH MAYES
MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG
ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 387
VALID 121445Z - 121540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE END
TO 10 SSE PNC TO 45 NW BVO.
..MEAD..06/12/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-121540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
$$
KSC019-121540-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAUTAUQUA
$$
MOC009-119-145-209-121540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY MCDONALD NEWTON
STONE
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-061-063-073-077-079-081-083-091-097-101-
103-105-107-111-113-115-117-119-121-131-133-135-143-145-147-
121540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE HASKELL
HUGHES KINGFISHER LATIMER
LE FLORE LINCOLN LOGAN
MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE
NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG
ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 387
VALID 121340Z - 121440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..06/12/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-121440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON
$$
KSC019-035-191-121440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY SUMNER
$$
MOC009-119-145-209-121440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY MCDONALD NEWTON
STONE
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-047-053-061-063-071-073-077-079-081-083-
091-097-101-103-105-107-111-113-115-117-119-121-131-133-135-143-
145-147-121440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE GARFIELD
GRANT HASKELL HUGHES
KAY KINGFISHER LATIMER
LE FLORE LINCOLN LOGAN
MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE
NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG
ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (60%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (60%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.