Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 388
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF ARKANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1135 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
EXTREMELY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 105 MPH...LARGE
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF MUSKOGEE OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
MEMPHIS TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 387...
DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE BOW ECHO/DERECHO HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NERN
OK AND WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY E/ESEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THRU THE
AFTERNOON. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND 40-50KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...A SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY VERY DAMAGING
WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. IN ADDITION SEVERE STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE STRONG HEATING OF THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THE DERECHO WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS WIND
DAMAGE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 90
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28045.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 388 SEVERE TSTM AR MS OK TN 121635Z - 130000Z
AXIS..100 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25WSW MKO/MUSKOGEE OK/ - 35SSE MEM/MEMPHIS TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM N/S /40S TUL - 32SSE MEM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..90 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28045.
LAT...LON 36979577 36028973 33118973 34089577
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 388 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 388
VALID 122345Z - 130040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GWO TO
20 SSE MEM TO 5 NE ARG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1081
WATCH 388 HAD BEEN SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z...HOWEVER PORTIONS
OF WW 388 HAVE BEEN LOCALLY EXTENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
TN AND NORTHERN MS -- SEE LOCAL WCN PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.
..GUYER..06/12/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...TSA...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 388
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC031-093-111-130040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAIGHEAD MISSISSIPPI POINSETT
$$
MSC003-009-013-015-017-019-025-033-043-057-071-081-087-093-095-
097-105-107-115-117-119-135-137-139-141-145-155-161-130040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CARROLL CHICKASAW CHOCTAW
CLAY DESOTO GRENADA
ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE
LOWNDES MARSHALL MONROE
MONTGOMERY OKTIBBEHA PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO UNION WEBSTER
YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC023-039-047-069-071-075-077-097-109-113-157-167-130040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER DECATUR FAYETTE
HARDEMAN HARDIN HAYWOOD
HENDERSON LAUDERDALE MCNAIRY
MADISON SHELBY TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 388
VALID 122245Z - 122340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW ELD
TO 15 SE HOT TO 35 SE BVX TO 10 N ARG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1081
..GUYER..06/12/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...TSA...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 388
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-031-039-041-043-053-069-079-085-093-
095-103-111-117-122340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND
CRAIGHEAD DALLAS DESHA
DREW GRANT JEFFERSON
LINCOLN LONOKE MISSISSIPPI
MONROE OUACHITA POINSETT
PRAIRIE
$$
MSC003-009-011-013-015-017-019-025-033-043-057-071-081-083-087-
093-095-097-105-107-115-117-119-133-135-137-139-141-145-151-155-
161-122340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON BOLIVAR
CALHOUN CARROLL CHICKASAW
CHOCTAW CLAY DESOTO
GRENADA ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE
LEE LEFLORE LOWNDES
MARSHALL MONROE MONTGOMERY
OKTIBBEHA PANOLA PONTOTOC
PRENTISS QUITMAN SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO UNION WASHINGTON
WEBSTER YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC023-047-069-071-075-097-109-113-157-167-122340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER FAYETTE HARDEMAN
HARDIN HAYWOOD LAUDERDALE
MCNAIRY MADISON SHELBY
TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 388
VALID 122135Z - 122240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ELD
TO 15 SE HOT TO 30 N LIT TO 20 SSW BVX TO 30 SSE UNO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1080
..GUYER..06/12/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...TSA...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 388
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-031-035-037-039-041-043-053-063-067-
069-075-077-079-085-093-095-103-107-111-117-123-135-145-147-
122240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
DALLAS DESHA DREW
GRANT INDEPENDENCE JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LEE
LINCOLN LONOKE MISSISSIPPI
MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS
POINSETT PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS
SHARP WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
MSC003-009-011-013-015-017-019-025-027-033-043-057-071-081-083-
087-093-095-097-105-107-115-117-119-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-
151-155-161-122240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON BOLIVAR
CALHOUN CARROLL CHICKASAW
CHOCTAW CLAY COAHOMA
DESOTO GRENADA ITAWAMBA
LAFAYETTE LEE LEFLORE
LOWNDES MARSHALL MONROE
MONTGOMERY OKTIBBEHA PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TATE
TIPPAH TISHOMINGO TUNICA
UNION WASHINGTON WEBSTER
YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC023-047-069-071-075-097-109-113-157-167-122240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER FAYETTE HARDEMAN
HARDIN HAYWOOD LAUDERDALE
MCNAIRY MADISON SHELBY
TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 388
VALID 122040Z - 122140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW ELD
TO 10 S HOT TO 15 SE RUE TO 25 NE RUE TO 30 NE HRO.
..MEAD..06/12/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...TSA...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 388
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-005-011-013-017-019-023-025-029-031-035-037-039-041-
043-045-049-051-053-059-063-065-067-069-075-077-079-085-089-093-
095-103-105-107-111-117-119-123-125-129-135-137-141-145-147-
122140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BAXTER
BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT
CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND
CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS DALLAS DESHA
DREW FAULKNER FULTON
GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LEE
LINCOLN LONOKE MARION
MISSISSIPPI MONROE OUACHITA
PERRY PHILLIPS POINSETT
PRAIRIE PULASKI ST. FRANCIS
SALINE SEARCY SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF
$$
MSC003-009-011-013-015-017-019-025-027-033-043-057-071-081-083-
087-093-095-097-105-107-115-117-119-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-
151-155-161-122140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON BOLIVAR
CALHOUN CARROLL CHICKASAW
CHOCTAW CLAY COAHOMA
DESOTO GRENADA ITAWAMBA
LAFAYETTE LEE LEFLORE
LOWNDES MARSHALL MONROE
MONTGOMERY OKTIBBEHA PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TATE
TIPPAH TISHOMINGO TUNICA
UNION WASHINGTON WEBSTER
YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC023-047-069-071-075-097-109-113-157-167-122140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER FAYETTE HARDEMAN
HARDIN HAYWOOD LAUDERDALE
MCNAIRY MADISON SHELBY
TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 388
VALID 121950Z - 122040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE RKR TO
35 W RUE TO 10 SW HRO TO 20 NNW HRO.
..MEAD..06/12/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...TSA...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 388
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-005-009-011-013-017-019-023-025-029-031-035-037-039-
041-043-045-049-051-053-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-077-079-083-
085-089-093-095-097-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-123-
125-127-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-122040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BAXTER
BOONE BRADLEY CALHOUN
CHICOT CLARK CLEBURNE
CLEVELAND CONWAY CRAIGHEAD
CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS
DESHA DREW FAULKNER
FULTON GARLAND GRANT
HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LAWRENCE LEE LINCOLN
LOGAN LONOKE MARION
MISSISSIPPI MONROE MONTGOMERY
NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY
PHILLIPS PIKE POINSETT
POLK POPE PRAIRIE
PULASKI ST. FRANCIS SALINE
SCOTT SEARCY SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF YELL
$$
MSC003-009-011-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-
119-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-161-122040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON BOLIVAR
CALHOUN CHICKASAW COAHOMA
DESOTO ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE
LEE MARSHALL MONROE
PANOLA PONTOTOC PRENTISS
QUITMAN SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE
TATE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO
TUNICA UNION YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC023-047-069-071-075-097-109-113-157-167-122040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER FAYETTE HARDEMAN
HARDIN HAYWOOD LAUDERDALE
MCNAIRY MADISON SHELBY
TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 388
VALID 121835Z - 121940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1076.
..MEAD..06/12/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...TSA...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 388
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-025-029-031-033-
035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-059-063-065-067-069-071-
075-077-079-083-085-087-089-093-095-097-101-103-105-107-109-111-
113-115-117-119-123-125-127-129-131-135-137-141-143-145-147-149-
121940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BAXTER
BENTON BOONE BRADLEY
CALHOUN CARROLL CHICOT
CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND
CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRAWFORD
CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS
DESHA DREW FAULKNER
FRANKLIN FULTON GARLAND
GRANT HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE
IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LAWRENCE LEE
LINCOLN LOGAN LONOKE
MADISON MARION MISSISSIPPI
MONROE MONTGOMERY NEWTON
OUACHITA PERRY PHILLIPS
PIKE POINSETT POLK
POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI
ST. FRANCIS SALINE SCOTT
SEARCY SEBASTIAN SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
$$
MSC011-027-033-107-119-133-135-137-143-121940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR COAHOMA DESOTO
PANOLA QUITMAN SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA
$$
OKC001-021-061-077-079-091-101-121-135-121940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE HASKELL
LATIMER LE FLORE MCINTOSH
MUSKOGEE PITTSBURG SEQUOYAH
$$
TNC097-157-167-121940-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAUDERDALE SHELBY TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 388
VALID 121740Z - 121840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..06/12/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...TSA...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 388
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-025-029-031-033-
035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-059-063-065-067-069-071-
075-077-079-083-085-087-089-093-095-097-101-103-105-107-109-111-
113-115-117-119-123-125-127-129-131-135-137-141-143-145-147-149-
121840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BAXTER
BENTON BOONE BRADLEY
CALHOUN CARROLL CHICOT
CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND
CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRAWFORD
CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS
DESHA DREW FAULKNER
FRANKLIN FULTON GARLAND
GRANT HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE
IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LAWRENCE LEE
LINCOLN LOGAN LONOKE
MADISON MARION MISSISSIPPI
MONROE MONTGOMERY NEWTON
OUACHITA PERRY PHILLIPS
PIKE POINSETT POLK
POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI
ST. FRANCIS SALINE SCOTT
SEARCY SEBASTIAN SHARP
STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
$$
MSC011-027-033-107-119-133-135-137-143-121840-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR COAHOMA DESOTO
PANOLA QUITMAN SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA
$$
OKC001-021-061-077-079-091-101-121-135-121840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE HASKELL
LATIMER LE FLORE MCINTOSH
MUSKOGEE PITTSBURG SEQUOYAH
$$
TNC097-157-167-121840-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAUDERDALE SHELBY TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
High (>95%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.