Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 392
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 405 PM UNTIL
1100 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF AKRON COLORADO TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD
COLORADO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 388...WW 389...WW
390...WW 391...
DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE/DEVELOP OVER ERN CO
THIS EVE...POSING A THREAT FOR HAIL. THE STORMS SHOULD FOCUS
FOREMOST ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE S OF DENVER...AN AREA THAT APPEARS
TO BE COLLOCATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL SURGE. A FEW STORMS MAY
ALSO FORM ALONG WEAK FRONT NOW NEAR THE CO/WY BORDER...AND IN SE CO
/N OF STALLED STRONGER FRONT NEAR ROTAN DIVIDE/. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE
SUGGESTS ONSET OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS REGION
ATTM...EXISTING THERMODYNAMIC SETUP AND LOW LVL ASCENT ALONG
PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED SFC FEATURES SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE EVE.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 392 SEVERE TSTM CO 122205Z - 130500Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55NNW AKO/AKRON CO/ - 30SW SPD/SPRINGFIELD CO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /31WSW SNY - 34ESE TBE/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..50 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 40900247 36970191 36970408 40900476
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 392 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 392
VALID 130245Z - 130340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE LAA TO
40 S LIC TO 20 ESE COS.
..GUYER..06/13/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 392
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-041-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-130340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE EL PASO KIT CARSON
LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN
PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON
WELD YUMA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 392
VALID 130200Z - 130340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW SPD TO
15 SE PUB.
..GRAMS..06/13/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 392
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-009-011-017-025-031-035-039-041-061-063-073-075-087-
089-095-099-101-115-121-123-125-130340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA
BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY
DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT
EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON
LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN
OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS
PUEBLO SEDGWICK WASHINGTON
WELD YUMA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.