Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1155 PM
UNTIL 700 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF
FLIPPIN ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 394...WW 395...
DISCUSSION...SCTD SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL EXPECTED OVER
PARTS OF AR OVERNIGHT AS MODEST BUT VERY MOIST WSWLY LLJ IS LIFTED
ATOP OUTFLOW LEFT BY YESTERDAY'S MCS. AMPLE DEEP SHEAR PRESENT
ABOVE INVERSION TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 396 SEVERE TSTM AR 130455Z - 131200Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20N FLP/FLIPPIN AR/ - 45SW PBF/PINE BLUFF AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /67SE SGF - 30NNE ELD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..50 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.
LAT...LON 36479102 33709108 33709387 36479391
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 396 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 396
VALID 130835Z - 130940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..06/13/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 396
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-023-025-029-039-041-043-045-049-051-
053-059-063-065-067-069-079-085-089-095-103-105-109-115-117-119-
125-129-135-137-141-145-147-130940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BAXTER BOONE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK
CLEBURNE CLEVELAND CONWAY
DALLAS DESHA DREW
FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND
GRANT HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE
IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON
LINCOLN LONOKE MARION
MONROE OUACHITA PERRY
PIKE POPE PRAIRIE
PULASKI SALINE SEARCY
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 396
VALID 130740Z - 130840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..06/13/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 396
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-023-025-029-039-041-043-045-049-051-
053-059-063-065-067-069-079-085-089-095-103-105-109-115-117-119-
125-129-135-137-141-145-147-130840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BAXTER BOONE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK
CLEBURNE CLEVELAND CONWAY
DALLAS DESHA DREW
FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND
GRANT HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE
IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON
LINCOLN LONOKE MARION
MONROE OUACHITA PERRY
PIKE POPE PRAIRIE
PULASKI SALINE SEARCY
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 396
VALID 130655Z - 130740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..06/13/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 396
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-023-025-029-039-041-043-045-049-051-
053-059-063-065-067-069-079-085-089-095-103-105-109-115-117-119-
125-129-135-137-141-145-147-130740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BAXTER BOONE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK
CLEBURNE CLEVELAND CONWAY
DALLAS DESHA DREW
FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND
GRANT HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE
IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON
LINCOLN LONOKE MARION
MONROE OUACHITA PERRY
PIKE POPE PRAIRIE
PULASKI SALINE SEARCY
SHARP STONE VAN BUREN
WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.