Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 399
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 400 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
LIMON COLORADO TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AMARILLO TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 397...WW 398...
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MOIST ESE POST-FRONTAL FLOW
PERSISTS ALONG AND N OF STALLING FRONT. COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH GLANCING INFLUENCE OF PASSING AZ/NM UPR
DISTURBANCES...SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND
AND A FEW TORNADOES. SOME OF THE STORMS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO ONE
OR TWO E TO ESE-MOVING MCSS LATER TONIGHT...THAT MAY CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SVR HAIL/WIND.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 399 TORNADO CO KS NM OK TX 132200Z - 140600Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15NNW LIC/LIMON CO/ - 45SE AMA/AMARILLO TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /46ESE DEN - 40SE AMA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
LAT...LON 39450208 34759956 34750273 39450545
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 399 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 399
VALID 140540Z - 140640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW CSM
TO 30 N CAO TO 35 S PUB.
..BROYLES..06/14/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 399
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-025-061-063-071-089-099-101-125-140640-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
CROWLEY KIOWA KIT CARSON
LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS
PUEBLO YUMA
$$
KSC025-055-067-069-071-075-081-093-119-129-175-187-189-199-
140640-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK FINNEY GRANT
GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON
HASKELL KEARNY MEADE
MORTON SEWARD STANTON
STEVENS WALLACE
$$
OKC007-009-025-045-129-139-140640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER BECKHAM CIMARRON
ELLIS ROGER MILLS TEXAS
$$
TXC111-195-211-295-357-393-421-483-140640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM HANSFORD HEMPHILL
LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS
SHERMAN WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 399
VALID 140435Z - 140540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W CSM TO
25 N CAO TO 25 NNW TAD.
..GUYER..06/14/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 399
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-025-061-063-071-089-099-101-125-140540-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
CROWLEY KIOWA KIT CARSON
LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS
PUEBLO YUMA
$$
KSC025-055-067-069-071-075-081-093-119-129-175-187-189-199-
140540-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK FINNEY GRANT
GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON
HASKELL KEARNY MEADE
MORTON SEWARD STANTON
STEVENS WALLACE
$$
OKC007-009-025-045-129-139-140540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER BECKHAM CIMARRON
ELLIS ROGER MILLS TEXAS
$$
TXC111-195-211-295-357-393-421-483-140540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM HANSFORD HEMPHILL
LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE ROBERTS
SHERMAN WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 399
VALID 140130Z - 140240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE CVS TO
30 N CAO TO 25 N TAD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1102
..GUYER..06/14/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 399
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-025-061-063-071-089-099-101-125-140240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
CROWLEY KIOWA KIT CARSON
LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS
PUEBLO YUMA
$$
KSC067-071-075-129-175-187-189-199-140240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRANT GREELEY HAMILTON
MORTON SEWARD STANTON
STEVENS WALLACE
$$
OKC007-009-025-045-129-139-140240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER BECKHAM CIMARRON
ELLIS ROGER MILLS TEXAS
$$
TXC011-065-087-111-117-129-179-195-205-211-233-295-341-357-359-
375-381-393-421-483-140240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH
DALLAM DEAF SMITH DONLEY
GRAY HANSFORD HARTLEY
HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB
MOORE OCHILTREE OLDHAM
POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS
SHERMAN WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.