Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 404
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM 105 AM UNTIL 700 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GARDEN CITY KANSAS TO 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LIBERAL KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 399...WW 401...WW
402...WW 403...
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST KS AND
SOUTHEAST CO. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR
ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS BEFORE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND
SLOWLY WEAKENING. IN THE MEANTIME...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST CORES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29030.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 404 SEVERE TSTM CO KS 140605Z - 141200Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NE GCK/GARDEN CITY KS/ - 15ESE LBL/LIBERAL KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /31NE GCK - 13ESE LBL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29030.
LAT...LON 38279851 36939900 36930244 38270201
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 404 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 404
VALID 140845Z - 140940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE EHA
TO 35 NE GCK.
..BROYLES..06/14/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 404
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-025-033-047-057-069-081-083-097-119-151-175-189-140940-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER CLARK COMANCHE
EDWARDS FORD GRAY
HASKELL HODGEMAN KIOWA
MEADE PRATT SEWARD
STEVENS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 404
VALID 140630Z - 140740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..06/14/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 404
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-099-140740-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA PROWERS
$$
KSC007-025-033-047-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-097-119-129-
151-175-187-189-140740-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER CLARK COMANCHE
EDWARDS FINNEY FORD
GRANT GRAY HAMILTON
HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY
KIOWA MEADE MORTON
PRATT SEWARD STANTON
STEVENS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.