Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 429
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1150 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF HUTCHINSON KANSAS TO 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHANUTE
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 426. WATCH NUMBER 426 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 1150 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 424...WW 425...WW 427...WW 428...
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN KS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASINGLY STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET FROM OK INTO
KS. AIR MASS OVER OK THAT IS FEEDING INTO THE STORMS HAS NOT BEEN
MODIFIED BY EARLIER CONVECTION WITH CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG
SUPPORTING STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION. PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF STORMS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 429 SEVERE TSTM KS 160450Z - 161000Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25WNW HUT/HUTCHINSON KS/ - 35NE CNU/CHANUTE KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /44NW ICT - 29WSW BUM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..50 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
REPLACES WW 426..KS
LAT...LON 38939830 38759502 37299502 37479830
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 429 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 429
VALID 160900Z - 161040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W HUT TO
25 SE EMP TO 15 WSW OJC.
..CARBIN..06/16/09
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 429
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-003-015-017-031-041-049-053-059-073-079-111-113-115-127-
133-139-155-159-169-173-205-207-161040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BUTLER
CHASE COFFEY DICKINSON
ELK ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN
GREENWOOD HARVEY LYON
MCPHERSON MARION MORRIS
NEOSHO OSAGE RENO
RICE SALINE SEDGWICK
WILSON WOODSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 429
VALID 160650Z - 160740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1152
..CARBIN..06/16/09
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 429
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-003-015-017-031-041-049-053-059-073-079-111-113-115-127-
133-139-155-159-169-173-205-207-160740-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BUTLER
CHASE COFFEY DICKINSON
ELK ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN
GREENWOOD HARVEY LYON
MCPHERSON MARION MORRIS
NEOSHO OSAGE RENO
RICE SALINE SEDGWICK
WILSON WOODSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 429
VALID 160555Z - 160640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..CARBIN..06/16/09
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 429
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-003-015-017-031-041-049-053-059-073-079-111-113-115-127-
133-139-155-159-169-173-205-207-160640-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BUTLER
CHASE COFFEY DICKINSON
ELK ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN
GREENWOOD HARVEY LYON
MCPHERSON MARION MORRIS
NEOSHO OSAGE RENO
RICE SALINE SEDGWICK
WILSON WOODSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.