Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 430
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1240 AM UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF JEFFERSON CITY MISSOURI TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MOUNT
VERNON ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 427...WW 428...WW 429...
DISCUSSION...INTENSE BOW ECHO OVER CENTRAL MO WILL TRACK EASTWARD AT
OVER 40 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN IL OVERNIGHT. EASTERN
EXTENT OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO TIME OF DAY AND
LESS INSTABILITY AHEAD OF STORMS. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27040.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 430 SEVERE TSTM IL MO 160540Z - 161100Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25SW JEF/JEFFERSON CITY MO/ - 20SSE MVN/MOUNT VERNON IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /31SSW COU - 46W PXV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.
LAT...LON 39209248 38918873 37188873 37479248
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 430 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 430
VALID 160955Z - 161040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CGI TO
10 SE MVN.
..CARBIN..06/16/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 430
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC087-153-199-161040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JOHNSON PULASKI WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 430
VALID 160900Z - 161040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1154
..CARBIN..06/16/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 430
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-005-013-027-055-077-081-083-087-119-121-133-145-153-157-
163-181-189-199-161040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER BOND CALHOUN
CLINTON FRANKLIN JACKSON
JEFFERSON JERSEY JOHNSON
MADISON MARION MONROE
PERRY PULASKI RANDOLPH
ST. CLAIR UNION WASHINGTON
WILLIAMSON
$$
MOC007-017-019-027-031-051-055-071-073-093-099-113-123-135-139-
151-157-163-179-183-186-187-189-201-219-221-223-510-161040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BOLLINGER BOONE
CALLAWAY CAPE GIRARDEAU COLE
CRAWFORD FRANKLIN GASCONADE
IRON JEFFERSON LINCOLN
MADISON MONITEAU MONTGOMERY
OSAGE PERRY PIKE
REYNOLDS ST. CHARLES STE. GENEVIEVE
ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS SCOTT
WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
