Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
450 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 450 AM UNTIL 900 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF
JOPLIN MISSOURI TO 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VICHY MISSOURI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 429...WW 430...
DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE BOW ECHO HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST KS AND
IS RACING INTO SOUTHWEST MO AT OVER 40 KNOTS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
MOVING THROUGH AREAS RECENTLY STABILIZED BY EARLIER MCS...BUT HAS
APPARENTLY RAPIDLY DESTABILIZED VIA STRONG WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BOW AND STORMS FORMING
AHEAD OF LINE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27040.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 431 SEVERE TSTM MO 160950Z - 161400Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35N JLN/JOPLIN MO/ - 55SE VIH/VICHY MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM N/S /37S BUM - 40W FAM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.
LAT...LON 38319450 38229105 36909105 37009450
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 431 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 431
VALID 161345Z - 161400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
WW 431 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 161400Z.
..PETERS..06/16/09
ATTN...WFO...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC065-161-203-215-225-229-161400-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DENT PHELPS SHANNON
TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 431
VALID 161255Z - 161340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW SGF
TO 30 WSW TBN TO 20 ENE VIH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1155
..CARBIN..06/16/09
ATTN...WFO...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC065-161-203-215-225-229-161340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DENT PHELPS SHANNON
TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 431
VALID 161220Z - 161340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW JLN
TO 35 WSW TBN TO 10 NNW VIH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1155
..CARBIN..06/16/09
ATTN...WFO...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC011-057-065-077-097-105-109-125-161-169-203-215-225-229-
161340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON DADE DENT
GREENE JASPER LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MARIES PHELPS
PULASKI SHANNON TEXAS
WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
