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SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 432
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
PARTS OF WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1040 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF
EVANSVILLE INDIANA TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING WRN PORTION OF WATCH
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES IN
ADVANCE OF IT. WITH A STRONG 50KT REAR INFLOW JET DAMAGING WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREAT AS LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE WATCH.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 432 SEVERE TSTM AR IL IN KY MO TN 161540Z - 162200Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45NE EVV/EVANSVILLE IN/ - 35WSW MKL/JACKSON TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /51NE PXV - 32NE MEM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
LAT...LON 38478519 35388780 35389118 38478869
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 432 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 432
VALID 162040Z - 162140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE BWG
TO 30 SW SDF TO 15 SW SDF TO 15 ESE SDF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1161.
..PETERS..06/16/09
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LMK...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC029-093-162140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BULLITT HARDIN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 432
VALID 161945Z - 162040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE MKL
TO 55 SSW CKV TO 20 ESE CKV TO 25 NW BWG TO 25 E OWB TO 30 NE OWB
TO 15 ESE SDF.
..PETERS..06/16/09
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LMK...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC027-029-031-061-085-091-093-141-163-183-213-227-162040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER
EDMONSON GRAYSON HANCOCK
HARDIN LOGAN MEADE
OHIO SIMPSON WARREN
$$
TNC021-043-081-125-135-147-162040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEATHAM DICKSON HICKMAN
MONTGOMERY PERRY ROBERTSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 432
VALID 161840Z - 161940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE MEM TO
30 NE MKL TO 10 WNW HOP TO 15 WSW OWB TO 35 N EVV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1158.
..PETERS..06/16/09
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LMK...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
INC019-025-037-043-051-061-117-123-125-143-147-163-173-175-
161940-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS
FLOYD GIBSON HARRISON
ORANGE PERRY PIKE
SCOTT SPENCER VANDERBURGH
WARRICK WASHINGTON
$$
KYC027-029-031-047-059-061-085-091-093-101-107-111-141-149-163-
177-183-185-213-219-227-233-161940-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER
CHRISTIAN DAVIESS EDMONSON
GRAYSON HANCOCK HARDIN
HENDERSON HOPKINS JEFFERSON
LOGAN MCLEAN MEADE
MUHLENBERG OHIO OLDHAM
SIMPSON TODD WARREN
WEBSTER
$$
TNC005-017-021-039-043-075-077-081-083-085-113-125-135-147-161-
161940-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CHEATHAM
DECATUR DICKSON HAYWOOD
HENDERSON HICKMAN HOUSTON
HUMPHREYS MADISON MONTGOMERY
PERRY ROBERTSON STEWART
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 432
VALID 161745Z - 161840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MEM
TO 15 ENE DYR TO 20 ESE PAH TO 50 NNE PAH TO MVN.
..PETERS..06/16/09
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LMK...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC047-059-065-069-185-191-193-161840-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDWARDS GALLATIN HAMILTON
HARDIN WABASH WAYNE
WHITE
$$
INC019-025-037-043-051-061-117-123-125-129-143-147-163-173-175-
161840-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS
FLOYD GIBSON HARRISON
ORANGE PERRY PIKE
POSEY SCOTT SPENCER
VANDERBURGH WARRICK WASHINGTON
$$
KYC027-029-031-033-035-047-055-059-061-083-085-091-093-101-107-
111-139-141-143-149-157-163-177-183-185-213-219-221-225-227-233-
161840-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER
CALDWELL CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN
CRITTENDEN DAVIESS EDMONSON
GRAVES GRAYSON HANCOCK
HARDIN HENDERSON HOPKINS
JEFFERSON LIVINGSTON LOGAN
LYON MCLEAN MARSHALL
MEADE MUHLENBERG OHIO
OLDHAM SIMPSON TODD
TRIGG UNION WARREN
WEBSTER
$$
TNC005-017-021-033-039-043-053-075-077-079-081-083-085-097-113-
125-135-147-161-167-183-161840-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CHEATHAM
CROCKETT DECATUR DICKSON
GIBSON HAYWOOD HENDERSON
HENRY HICKMAN HOUSTON
HUMPHREYS LAUDERDALE MADISON
MONTGOMERY PERRY ROBERTSON
STEWART TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 432
VALID 161635Z - 161740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE ARG
TO 40 WNW DYR TO 20 SSE CGI TO 20 S MDH TO 5 NNE MDH.
..PETERS..06/16/09
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LMK...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC031-055-093-111-161740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAIGHEAD GREENE MISSISSIPPI
POINSETT
$$
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-087-127-151-153-165-181-185-191-193-
199-161740-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JOHNSON MASSAC POPE
PULASKI SALINE UNION
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
INC019-025-037-043-051-061-117-123-125-129-143-147-163-173-175-
161740-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS
FLOYD GIBSON HARRISON
ORANGE PERRY PIKE
POSEY SCOTT SPENCER
VANDERBURGH WARRICK WASHINGTON
$$
KYC007-027-029-031-033-035-039-047-055-059-061-075-083-085-091-
093-101-105-107-111-139-141-143-145-149-157-163-177-183-185-213-
219-221-225-227-233-161740-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT
BUTLER CALDWELL CALLOWAY
CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN
DAVIESS EDMONSON FULTON
GRAVES GRAYSON HANCOCK
HARDIN HENDERSON HICKMAN
HOPKINS JEFFERSON LIVINGSTON
LOGAN LYON MCCRACKEN
MCLEAN MARSHALL MEADE
MUHLENBERG OHIO OLDHAM
SIMPSON TODD TRIGG
UNION WARREN WEBSTER
$$
MOC069-133-143-155-201-161740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
PEMISCOT SCOTT
$$
TNC005-017-021-033-039-043-045-053-075-077-079-081-083-085-095-
097-113-125-131-135-147-161-167-183-161740-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CHEATHAM
CROCKETT DECATUR DICKSON
DYER GIBSON HAYWOOD
HENDERSON HENRY HICKMAN
HOUSTON HUMPHREYS LAKE
LAUDERDALE MADISON MONTGOMERY
OBION PERRY ROBERTSON
STEWART TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.