Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 432
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA
NORTHERN MISSOURI
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 430 AM UNTIL NOON CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF SHENANDOAH IOWA TO 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF FORT
DODGE IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 427...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 428. WATCH NUMBER 427 428 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 430
AM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 429...WW 430...WW 431...
DISCUSSION...STRONG TO SVR TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG AND AHEAD
OF LOBE OF ASCENT EXTENDING SSW FROM NW IA MCV. THE TSTMS LIKELY
ARE ELEVATED...ROOTED IN A MOIST LAYER NEAR 800 OR 750 MB...ABOVE
THE STOUT EML. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE APPEARS PRESENT TO SUPPORT
SVR HAIL...WITH DMGG WIND ALSO POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...STORMS IN SW
AND S CNTRL IA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS THAT THEY ARE
BEGINNING TO TAP BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. MOIST ESELY SFC FLOW IN THIS
REGION COULD SUPPORT ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION/POSSIBLE TORNADOES
IF THAT SCENARIO WERE TO OCCUR.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 432 SEVERE TSTM IA MO NE 030930Z - 031700Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35SSE SDA/SHENANDOAH IA/ - 45ENE FOD/FORT DODGE IA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /48E PWE - 18S MCW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
REPLACES WW 427..IA IL MO
REPLACES WW 428..IA NE SD
LAT...LON 40279677 42779505 42779169 40279355
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 432 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 432
VALID 031535Z - 031640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CDJ TO
20 E LWD TO 20 SSE OXV.
..KERR..06/03/08
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-051-179-031640-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE DAVIS WAPELLO
$$
MOC171-197-031640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PUTNAM SCHUYLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 432
VALID 031430Z - 031540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E LWD TO
15 ESE LWD TO 30 NNW OTM.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY AS MCS
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OF REGION.
..KERR..06/03/08
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-051-123-135-179-185-031540-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE DAVIS MAHASKA
MONROE WAPELLO WAYNE
$$
MOC171-197-031540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PUTNAM SCHUYLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 432
VALID 031335Z - 031440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE STJ
TO 20 SE OXV.
..KERR..06/03/08
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-051-053-123-135-179-185-031440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE DAVIS DECATUR
MAHASKA MONROE WAPELLO
WAYNE
$$
MOC075-081-129-171-197-031440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GENTRY HARRISON MERCER
PUTNAM SCHUYLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 432
VALID 031235Z - 031340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE FNB
TO 20 SW SDA TO 35 E SDA TO 25 N LWD TO 20 SW OXV TO 10 NE OXV TO
40 SSW ALO TO 20 NNW CID.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1175
..JEWELL..06/03/08
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-039-051-053-117-123-135-157-159-171-173-179-185-031340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS
DECATUR LUCAS MAHASKA
MONROE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD
TAMA TAYLOR WAPELLO
WAYNE
$$
MOC005-075-081-087-129-147-171-197-227-031340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON GENTRY HARRISON
HOLT MERCER NODAWAY
PUTNAM SCHUYLER WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 432
VALID 031140Z - 031240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S TQE TO
35 SSE DNS TO 40 NE SDA TO 45 WSW DSM TO 15 SW DSM TO 35 NNE DSM
TO 35 SW ALO TO 30 NNW CID.
..JEWELL..06/03/08
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-007-029-039-051-053-071-099-117-121-123-125-127-129-
135-137-145-153-155-157-159-169-171-173-175-179-181-185-
031240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
CASS CLARKE DAVIS
DECATUR FREMONT JASPER
LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA
MARION MARSHALL MILLS
MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE
POLK POTTAWATTAMIE POWESHIEK
RINGGOLD STORY TAMA
TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO
WARREN WAYNE
$$
MOC005-075-081-087-129-147-171-197-227-031240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON GENTRY HARRISON
HOLT MERCER NODAWAY
PUTNAM SCHUYLER WORTH
$$
NEC023-025-055-067-095-097-109-127-131-133-147-151-153-155-159-
031240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CASS DOUGLAS
GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LANCASTER NEMAHA OTOE
PAWNEE RICHARDSON SALINE
SARPY SAUNDERS SEWARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 432
VALID 031100Z - 031240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW OMA TO
15 NNE OMA TO 30 ENE OMA TO 40 SSE DNS TO 40 W DSM TO 25 SE FOD
TO 35 E ALO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1171
..JEWELL..06/03/08
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-007-013-015-029-039-049-051-053-071-075-079-083-099-
117-121-123-125-127-129-135-137-145-153-155-157-159-169-171-173-
175-179-181-185-031240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
BLACK HAWK BOONE CASS
CLARKE DALLAS DAVIS
DECATUR FREMONT GRUNDY
HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER
LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA
MARION MARSHALL MILLS
MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE
POLK POTTAWATTAMIE POWESHIEK
RINGGOLD STORY TAMA
TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO
WARREN WAYNE
$$
MOC005-075-081-087-129-147-171-197-227-031240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON GENTRY HARRISON
HOLT MERCER NODAWAY
PUTNAM SCHUYLER WORTH
$$
NEC023-025-055-067-095-097-109-127-131-133-147-151-153-155-159-
031240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CASS DOUGLAS
GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LANCASTER NEMAHA OTOE
PAWNEE RICHARDSON SALINE
SARPY SAUNDERS SEWARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.