Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
JACKSON KENTUCKY TO 75 MILES WEST OF CHATTANOOGA TENNESSEE. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 432...
DISCUSSION...COLD POOL AND STRONG REAR INFLOW JET CONTINUES TO DRIVE
THE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/BOW ECHO EWD INTO A FAVORABLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE WITH A TENDENCY TO DEVELOP FURTHER S
INTO BETTER INSTABILITY AS THE LINE CONTINUES E NEAR 40KT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27040.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 433 SEVERE TSTM KY TN 161840Z - 170100Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45NW JKL/JACKSON KY/ - 75W CHA/CHATTANOOGA TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /59N LOZ - 51ENE MSL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.
LAT...LON 37998222 35008484 35008819 37998570
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 433 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 433
VALID 162330Z - 170040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW TYS TO
30 ENE CSV TO 50 NNE TYS.
..GRAMS..06/16/09
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX...HUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 433
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC013-170040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BELL
$$
TNC001-025-093-105-173-170040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON CLAIBORNE KNOX
LOUDON UNION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 433
VALID 162245Z - 162340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 W CHA TO
35 NE CSV TO 40 SE LOZ TO 10 SW JKL TO 45 E JKL.
..GRAMS..06/16/09
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX...HUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 433
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC095-119-131-133-193-162340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARLAN KNOTT LESLIE
LETCHER PERRY
$$
TNC001-011-013-025-093-105-107-121-129-145-173-162340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BRADLEY CAMPBELL
CLAIBORNE KNOX LOUDON
MCMINN MEIGS MORGAN
ROANE UNION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 433
VALID 162130Z - 162240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W CHA TO
40 W CSV TO 35 W LOZ TO 25 W LEX.
..GRAMS..06/16/09
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX...HUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 433
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC005-013-021-025-049-051-065-067-079-109-113-115-121-125-129-
131-137-147-151-153-165-167-175-189-193-197-199-203-215-231-235-
237-239-162240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL BOYLE
BREATHITT CLARK CLAY
ESTILL FAYETTE GARRARD
JACKSON JESSAMINE JOHNSON
KNOX LAUREL LEE
LESLIE LINCOLN MCCREARY
MADISON MAGOFFIN MENIFEE
MERCER MORGAN OWSLEY
PERRY POWELL PULASKI
ROCKCASTLE SPENCER WAYNE
WHITLEY WOLFE WOODFORD
$$
TNC001-007-011-013-025-035-049-065-093-105-107-115-121-129-133-
137-141-143-145-151-153-173-175-185-162240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BLEDSOE BRADLEY
CAMPBELL CLAIBORNE CUMBERLAND
FENTRESS HAMILTON KNOX
LOUDON MCMINN MARION
MEIGS MORGAN OVERTON
PICKETT PUTNAM RHEA
ROANE SCOTT SEQUATCHIE
UNION VAN BUREN WHITE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 433
VALID 162045Z - 162140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW HSV
TO 40 S BNA TO 35 ENE BNA TO 50 E BWG TO 45 ENE BWG TO 40 NNE BWG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1161.
..PETERS..06/16/09
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX...HUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 433
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC001-005-013-021-025-045-049-051-053-057-065-067-079-087-109-
113-115-121-123-125-129-131-137-147-151-153-155-165-167-175-179-
189-193-197-199-203-207-215-217-229-231-235-237-239-162140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDERSON BELL
BOYLE BREATHITT CASEY
CLARK CLAY CLINTON
CUMBERLAND ESTILL FAYETTE
GARRARD GREEN JACKSON
JESSAMINE JOHNSON KNOX
LARUE LAUREL LEE
LESLIE LINCOLN MCCREARY
MADISON MAGOFFIN MARION
MENIFEE MERCER MORGAN
NELSON OWSLEY PERRY
POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE
RUSSELL SPENCER TAYLOR
WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITLEY
WOLFE WOODFORD
$$
TNC001-003-007-011-013-015-025-027-031-035-041-049-051-061-065-
087-093-103-105-107-115-117-121-127-129-133-137-141-143-145-149-
151-153-159-173-175-177-185-189-162140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BEDFORD BLEDSOE
BRADLEY CAMPBELL CANNON
CLAIBORNE CLAY COFFEE
CUMBERLAND DEKALB FENTRESS
FRANKLIN GRUNDY HAMILTON
JACKSON KNOX LINCOLN
LOUDON MCMINN MARION
MARSHALL MEIGS MOORE
MORGAN OVERTON PICKETT
PUTNAM RHEA ROANE
RUTHERFORD SCOTT SEQUATCHIE
SMITH UNION VAN BUREN
WARREN WHITE WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 433
VALID 161945Z - 162040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..06/16/09
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX...HUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 433
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC001-003-005-009-013-021-025-045-049-051-053-057-065-067-079-
087-099-109-113-115-121-123-125-129-131-137-147-151-153-155-165-
167-169-171-175-179-189-193-197-199-203-207-215-217-229-231-235-
237-239-162040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON
BARREN BELL BOYLE
BREATHITT CASEY CLARK
CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND
ESTILL FAYETTE GARRARD
GREEN HART JACKSON
JESSAMINE JOHNSON KNOX
LARUE LAUREL LEE
LESLIE LINCOLN MCCREARY
MADISON MAGOFFIN MARION
MENIFEE MERCER METCALFE
MONROE MORGAN NELSON
OWSLEY PERRY POWELL
PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL
SPENCER TAYLOR WASHINGTON
WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE
WOODFORD
$$
TNC001-003-007-011-013-015-025-027-031-035-037-041-049-051-055-
061-065-087-093-099-101-103-105-107-111-115-117-119-121-127-129-
133-137-141-143-145-149-151-153-159-165-169-173-175-177-181-185-
187-189-162040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BEDFORD BLEDSOE
BRADLEY CAMPBELL CANNON
CLAIBORNE CLAY COFFEE
CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DEKALB
FENTRESS FRANKLIN GILES
GRUNDY HAMILTON JACKSON
KNOX LAWRENCE LEWIS
LINCOLN LOUDON MCMINN
MACON MARION MARSHALL
MAURY MEIGS MOORE
MORGAN OVERTON PICKETT
PUTNAM RHEA ROANE
RUTHERFORD SCOTT SEQUATCHIE
SMITH SUMNER TROUSDALE
UNION VAN BUREN WARREN
WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON
WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.