Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 435
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
420 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 420 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
HURON SOUTH DAKOTA TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF MITCHELL SOUTH DAKOTA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 433...WW 434...
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP SSEWD ALONG A
STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SE SD...ALONG THE SERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER. DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR AND E
OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL VORTICITY IS ALSO
MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WIND SHIFT. A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND
ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32015.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 435 TORNADO SD 162120Z - 170200Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20NNW HON/HURON SD/ - 50S MHE/MITCHELL SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /46S ABR - 45NE ONL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32015.
LAT...LON 44639726 43049694 43049912 44639950
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 435 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 435
VALID 170125Z - 170200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW YKN
TO 30 SE MHE TO 15 WSW FSD.
BUT THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING...AND THE REMAINING VALID
PORTION OF WW 435 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 17/02Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1164.
..KERR..06/17/09
ATTN...WFO...FSD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 435
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC009-027-067-125-135-170200-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BON HOMME CLAY HUTCHINSON
TURNER YANKTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 435
VALID 170035Z - 170140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/17/09
ATTN...WFO...FSD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 435
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC003-005-009-015-023-035-043-053-061-067-073-077-087-097-111-
135-170140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME
BRULE CHARLES MIX DAVISON
DOUGLAS GREGORY HANSON
HUTCHINSON JERAULD KINGSBURY
MCCOOK MINER SANBORN
YANKTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 435
VALID 162340Z - 170040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/16/09
ATTN...WFO...FSD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 435
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC003-005-009-015-023-035-043-053-061-067-073-077-087-097-111-
135-170040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME
BRULE CHARLES MIX DAVISON
DOUGLAS GREGORY HANSON
HUTCHINSON JERAULD KINGSBURY
MCCOOK MINER SANBORN
YANKTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 435
VALID 162245Z - 162340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/16/09
ATTN...WFO...FSD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 435
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SDC003-005-009-015-023-035-043-053-061-067-073-077-087-097-111-
135-162340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME
BRULE CHARLES MIX DAVISON
DOUGLAS GREGORY HANSON
HUTCHINSON JERAULD KINGSBURY
MCCOOK MINER SANBORN
YANKTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.