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SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 436
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
555 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
EASTERN TENNESSEE
WESTERN VIRGINIA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 555
PM UNTIL 100 AM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST
OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
KNOXVILLE TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 433...WW 434...WW 435...
DISCUSSION...WELL-DEFINED BOW ECHO WITH DAMAGING WINDS IS MOVING EWD
ALONG THE SE KY/NE TN BORDER AT ABOUT 45 KT. THIS SYSTEM MAY TEND
TO PROPAGATE MORE ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN
INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR FARTHER TO THE E IN
NC/VA. MEANWHILE...MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SC ALONG
THE SAME INSTABILITY GRADIENT. VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS SC...WITH LARGE
HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28040.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 436 SEVERE TSTM GA NC SC TN VA 162155Z - 170500Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
15SSW CLT/CHARLOTTE NC/ - 55NNE TYS/KNOXVILLE TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM EITHER SIDE /13SSW CLT - 37SE LOZ/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28040.
LAT...LON 34028176 35568434 37548287 36008030
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 436 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 436
VALID 170440Z - 170500Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE AND
TO 20 S GSP TO 35 NW CAE.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 436 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
17/05Z.
..KERR..06/17/09
ATTN...WFO...GSP...RNK...MRX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 436
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SCC001-047-059-170500-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ABBEVILLE GREENWOOD LAURENS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 436
VALID 170330Z - 170440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW AND TO
15 SSE AVL TO 40 ESE SPA.
..KERR..06/17/09
ATTN...WFO...GSP...RNK...MRX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 436
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC175-170440-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
TRANSYLVANIA
$$
SCC001-007-047-059-077-083-087-170440-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ABBEVILLE ANDERSON GREENWOOD
LAURENS PICKENS SPARTANBURG
UNION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 436
VALID 170250Z - 170340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW AND TO
10 WSW AVL TO 30 W CLT TO 15 SSW CLT.
..KERR..06/17/09
ATTN...WFO...GSP...RNK...MRX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 436
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC045-175-170340-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLEVELAND TRANSYLVANIA
$$
SCC001-007-021-023-045-047-059-077-083-087-091-170340-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ABBEVILLE ANDERSON CHEROKEE
CHESTER GREENVILLE GREENWOOD
LAURENS PICKENS SPARTANBURG
UNION YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 436
VALID 170225Z - 170340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW AND TO
20 WSW AVL TO 10 N HKY TO 55 WNW GSO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1166.
..GRAMS..06/17/09
ATTN...WFO...GSP...RNK...MRX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 436
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC003-023-025-035-045-059-071-089-097-109-111-119-149-159-161-
175-179-170340-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER BURKE CABARRUS
CATAWBA CLEVELAND DAVIE
GASTON HENDERSON IREDELL
LINCOLN MCDOWELL MECKLENBURG
POLK ROWAN RUTHERFORD
TRANSYLVANIA UNION
$$
SCC001-007-021-023-045-047-059-077-083-087-091-170340-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ABBEVILLE ANDERSON CHEROKEE
CHESTER GREENVILLE GREENWOOD
LAURENS PICKENS SPARTANBURG
UNION YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 436
VALID 170035Z - 170140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S TYS TO
40 NW HSS TO 45 NNE TRI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1165.
..GRAMS..06/17/09
ATTN...WFO...GSP...RNK...MRX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 436
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC241-170140-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RABUN
$$
NCC003-005-009-011-021-023-025-027-035-045-059-071-075-087-089-
097-099-109-111-113-115-119-121-149-159-161-173-175-179-189-193-
199-170140-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY ASHE
AVERY BUNCOMBE BURKE
CABARRUS CALDWELL CATAWBA
CLEVELAND DAVIE GASTON
GRAHAM HAYWOOD HENDERSON
IREDELL JACKSON LINCOLN
MCDOWELL MACON MADISON
MECKLENBURG MITCHELL POLK
ROWAN RUTHERFORD SWAIN
TRANSYLVANIA UNION WATAUGA
WILKES YANCEY
$$
SCC001-007-021-023-045-047-059-073-077-083-087-091-170140-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ABBEVILLE ANDERSON CHEROKEE
CHESTER GREENVILLE GREENWOOD
LAURENS OCONEE PICKENS
SPARTANBURG UNION YORK
$$
TNC009-019-029-059-063-073-089-091-155-163-171-179-170140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT CARTER COCKE
GREENE HAMBLEN HAWKINS
JEFFERSON JOHNSON SEVIER
SULLIVAN UNICOI WASHINGTON
$$
VAC077-167-173-185-191-520-170140-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRAYSON RUSSELL SMYTH
TAZEWELL WASHINGTON
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISTOL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 436
VALID 162330Z - 170040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..06/16/09
ATTN...WFO...GSP...RNK...MRX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 436
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC241-170040-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RABUN
$$
NCC003-005-009-011-021-023-025-027-035-045-059-071-075-087-089-
097-099-109-111-113-115-119-121-149-159-161-173-175-179-189-193-
199-170040-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY ASHE
AVERY BUNCOMBE BURKE
CABARRUS CALDWELL CATAWBA
CLEVELAND DAVIE GASTON
GRAHAM HAYWOOD HENDERSON
IREDELL JACKSON LINCOLN
MCDOWELL MACON MADISON
MECKLENBURG MITCHELL POLK
ROWAN RUTHERFORD SWAIN
TRANSYLVANIA UNION WATAUGA
WILKES YANCEY
$$
SCC001-007-021-023-045-047-059-073-077-083-087-091-170040-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ABBEVILLE ANDERSON CHEROKEE
CHESTER GREENVILLE GREENWOOD
LAURENS OCONEE PICKENS
SPARTANBURG UNION YORK
$$
TNC009-019-029-057-059-063-067-073-089-091-123-155-163-171-179-
170040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT CARTER COCKE
GRAINGER GREENE HAMBLEN
HANCOCK HAWKINS JEFFERSON
JOHNSON MONROE SEVIER
SULLIVAN UNICOI WASHINGTON
$$
VAC077-105-167-169-173-185-191-195-520-720-170040-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRAYSON LEE RUSSELL
SCOTT SMYTH TAZEWELL
WASHINGTON WISE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISTOL NORTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.